Texline, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

094
FXUS64 KAMA 281740
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Mostly dry conditions along with above average temperatures are
  expected to start the month of October for the Texas and
  Oklahoma Panhandles.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The latest 28/16z RAP H500 analysis indicates a low pressure system
is currently located across south central Arizona and is steadily
moving off to the east. Disturbances out ahead of this system have
generated showers and thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico
earlier this morning but much of that activity has since weakened.
Most of the rain showers and storms should remain in NM for today as
the better axis of H700 theta-e remains across that area for
today. High clouds will eventually move in across the Panhandles,
but temperatures will rise into the 80s for most locations before
that occurs this evening.
The trough will begin to slightly weaken and lift northeast on
Monday over Arizona/New Mexico. This will shift the axis of better
moisture slightly to the east and over the Panhandles. Mostly
cloudy skies are forecast for tomorrow which will aid in keeping
temperatures near average with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Synoptic support does not look great for any showers or
storms to develop tomorrow, but cannot completely rule out some
isolated showers with the moisture axis over the Panhandles during
the afternoon into the evening hours. If any showers do form,
very minimal rainfall would be expected due to drier air in the
lower levels of the atmosphere. As the trough axis moves over the
Panhandles Monday night, cloud cover should clear out from west to
east going into Tuesday morning.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
A quiet weather pattern is currently favored for the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles through next weekend. A ridging pattern will be
the main focus for much of the long term forecast as it will lead to
above average temperatures and dry conditions through at least the
end of the work week. An upper level low pressure system is expected
to dig south from the Pacific Northwest towards the Desert Southwest
late this week. The track this system takes varies in the model
guidance this far out, but in general it looks to lead to the
typical Fall Panhandle winds starting to ramp up on Friday and
Saturday. Gusts upwards of 30-40 mph are not out of the realm of
possibility on either of these days. There are outlier solutions
(such as the deterministic Euro) that suggests the low dips far
enough south to potentially generate light rainfall for the region
on Saturday. Not many ensembles are picking up on this potential,
thus the NBM PoPs are only around 5 percent or less for Saturday.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions are likely over the next 24 hours. High clouds will
move in over the region and winds be out of the south. Wind gusts
through 00z could be upwards of 20-25 kts at the terminals.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion