Thatcher, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

662
FXUS65 KPIH 231042
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
442 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend develops today, warming continues to Thursday
  afternoon, then stays around 10 degrees above normal through
  Monday.
- High pressure will keep wind weak through at least Monday
  morning.
- Next slight chance for precipitation remains Monday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
High pressure centered over the location where OR-ID-NV meet
keeps a weak upper level flow from the north through Wed
afternoon, then there is a shift to more westerly upper level
flow. This will allow temperatures to level off with maximum
warming on Thu.
Under the high, the stronger wind stays in the far north of the
Idaho Panhandle and southern Canada, until a Canadian trough
flattens the ridge and performs the upper level wind shift to
the west. Stronger upper air flow sags southward at the very end
of this forecast period.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
This upper level ridge remains the dominant pattern for central
and eastern Idaho, with an amplification of the ridge to the
west puts the forecast area in a location with northwesterly
upper level flow. This allows temperatures by Fri to cool just a
little. An upper level low to the south starts moving in Sat
night, at first just bringing clouds to mainly the southern tier
of the forecast area. This also brings in some weak cooling. On
Mon afternoon, a trough arrives at the west coast, shifting wind
to more southwest with a threat by Mon afternoon of
precipitation mainly in the northwest corner of the forecast
area. The rain then spreads into the rest of eastern Idaho by
Mon evening.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 442 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
High pressure is keeping the region cloud- and weather-free,
with light wind. No impact to flying operations.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Warming and drying develop for the next couple of days, and by
Thu afternoon temperatures are around 80 with dewpoint around
30, leading to an afternoon humidity in the mid-teens. Wind
under the dominating upper level high should remain light and
driven mainly by slope-valley interactions. So there is no
expected critical weather conditions, even if the fuels were
critical. The next low approaches Mon afternoon from the west
coast (OR-WA), bringing the next chance for precipitation.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ052>054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...Messick

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion