Thaxton, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

936
FXUS61 KRNK 221502
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1102 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms possible west of the Blue Ridge
Monday afternoon. Low pressure over the northern plains and
upper Midwest will track the Great Lakes and lower Missouri
Valley by Tuesday. This system edges closer through the rest of
next week increasing our chances for beneficial rainfall.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1055 AM EDT Monday...
For the near term update this morning, have adjusted some
lingering stratocu cloud coverage mainly in a zone along and a
bit east of the foothills. Otherwise just some minor temp/dewpt
trend adjustments per recent obs. Still expecting some isolated
to scattered convection triggering this afternoon mainly in the
mountains where the greater moisture/instability axis extends.
Only garden variety intensity expected for any thunderstorm
development with rather tall/skinny CAPE thermal profile and
weakly sheared environment. Previous discussion follows...
As of 225 AM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
1) A few showers/storms in the mountains Monday ahead of an
upper disturbance.
A wedging pattern remains into Monday morning, keeping some low
clouds and patchy fog around the Piedmont and Southside. Some
reduced visibility is already appearing in automated
observations in that area.
Monday will be the first day in which shortwave energy
associated with an upper trough will pass near enough to have a
tangible impact on precipitation chances around southwest VA.
Monday afternoon, as a piece of energy in the upper wave enters
the TN Valley, there ought to be sufficient moisture to allow
for isolated to scattered showers to form largely west of the
Blue Ridge. The best environment for convection still remains
further west into TN/KY, so expect any showers to be lighter,
with a flash of lightning not being out of the question.
Temperatures will be warm, with highs in the low 80s in the
Piedmont, and in the 70s for the mountains. Due to localized
showers, temperatures could be a few degrees cooler in locales
that receive rain in the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT MONDAY...
Key Messages:
1. Showers with possible isolated thunderstorms through the middle
of the week.
2. Above normal temperatures through the period.
High pressure will slide east into the Atlantic by Tuesday. Although
high pressure will weaken as it tracks eastward, it will still
maintain enough of an influence for easterly return flow into the
region, increasing moisture in the area, sparking showers and
thunderstorms by the afternoon. Also, as a result, temperatures will
remain above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with increasing
dewpoints. In the upper levels, southwesterly flow will gradually
increase into Wednesday, in advance of an approaching upper low that
is expected to close off over the Midwest by Wednesday afternoon.
Weak perturbations within the 500mb flow will bring the opportunity
for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms both Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. However, the highest probabilities for showers
and storms look to be along and west of the Blue Ridge, with the
greatest coverage on Wednesday, with the better upper level support
closer to the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
1. Chances for showers and thunderstorms nearly everyday through the
end of the week and into the week.
2. Above normal temperatures with higher humidity.
A deep upper trough will move into the eastern US through the end of
the work week and into the weekend, eventually pushing a cold front
through the region. Long range models differ in the evolution of the
upper level flow through the week, with some models showing the cut
off low becoming more of an open wave in the larger scale flow,
whereas others suggest the low remaining cut off and lingering over
the southeastern states. Nonetheless, chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the end of the week and the
weekend, as long as the front remains in the vicinity. Continued
southwesterly flow aloft will keep temperatures above normal with
higher humidity through the forecast period. By the end of the
weekend, the front looks to finally exit the area to the east, and
usher in mostly dry conditions. That being said, that may change
with further forecast updates, depending on the progression of the
front and upper trough.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...
Most of the forecast area is in VFR conditions tonight, though
portions of the Piedmont and Southside VA are already
experiencing lower cigs and reduced vsby. As the night
progresses into Monday morning, expect this to become more
widespread east of the Blue Ridge, mostly bringing deteriorated
conditions to BCB/LYH/DAN with cigs around or below 1kft, and
patchy fog.
Conditions will improve again after the sun rises, returning the
area to largely VFR conditions. Later Monday afternoon,
isolated to scattered showers in the mountains could cause
locally reduced vsby sub-VFR, especially around BLF and as far
east as BCB/ROA.
Confidence in the above forecast is average.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
Mainly VFR this week though could see some sub-VFR cigs/vsbys
with showers in the afternoon and fog at night mainly in the
mountains. Shower/storm chances increase by Thursday with sub-
VFR more likely areawide.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VFJ/WP
NEAR TERM...AB/VFJ
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG/VFJ

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion