Tincup, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

701
FXUS65 KGJT 292327
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
527 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another passing trough on Tuesday will bring more showers and
  thunderstorms to the elevations of western Colorado and
  eastern Utah.
- Drier and warmer conditions then move in for the mid to late
  week period with another system moving through Friday into the
  Saturday.
- Cooler and wetter conditions return Saturday and beyond.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A digging West Coast trough is still sending some moisture across
the region. Isolated mountain showers and thunderstorms have been
firing all afternoon, favoring the shoulders of the Divide. Some
weak subsidence from a ridge sliding overhead has kept things
suppressed, despite ample moisture. So, mostly just some cloud cover
across the region keeping temperatures mild. By Tuesday morning, the
upper level trough and jet streak move across the Four Corners. This
will stir up surface winds Tuesday afternoon, with winds on the
terrain gusting 25 to 35 mph and lighter in the sheltered valleys.
With forcing from the trough coming into play Tuesday, showers and
storms should be a little more widespread than today. Moisture
remains rather light though, so not expecting any heavy rain
concerns. The trailing edge of forcing continues to glance our
northern counties Tuesday night. A few showers will likely continue
into the early hours of Wednesday in northeast Utah and northwest
Colorado.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A quick moving and shallow shortwave trough will be moving across
northern portions of the CWA during the day on Wednesday. Despite
the higher moisture amounts, upper level support will be lacking so
the end result will be some clouds over the higher terrain and
little else. After that, ridging builds in from the south as a
closed low just off the PacNW coast drops down to Nevada by Friday.
Weather through that period will be pleasant albeit high temps will
run anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above normal. By Friday evening,
the closed low will have become a a trough with an associated
surface cold front. Precip is expected to start moving in late
Friday into Saturday morning. A 90kt jet streak will support this
feature aloft and will cause the system to move out pretty quickly.
The widest coverage for any precip will occur around noon on
Saturday and by 6PM, give or take, some light showers will remain
along the Continental Divide while the bulk of precip rushes to the
north and east. Some timing differences do pop up between ensembles
and also once the front/trough passes. Suffice to say, a wet weekend
looks to be in store but the finer details still need to be worked
out. As mentioned, high temps will remain above normal dropping
below Saturday onwards.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Shower activity is decreasing with only an outside chance of
hitting KHDN and KTEX through sunset. Otherwise VFR prevails
with light winds in place. Another system passes through on
Tuesday and brings another chance of afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity...with KVEL having the best chance and
holding a PROB30 attm.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion