Tincup, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

881
FXUS65 KGJT 221149
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
549 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue this
  morning before becoming more widespread this afternoon and
  evening. Precip will continue overnight into Tuesday.
- Some heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail will be possible
  under the stronger cells.
- Temperatures drop to below normal Tuesday but quickly rebound
  to normal values Wednesday.
- Drier air returns Tuesday with the next chances for
  precipitation possible next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A 95kt jet streak is currently moving over northern portions of
the forecast area this morning. Don`t have to tell you folks up
in Rangely, Craig or Meeker that as rounds of showers and
thunderstorms have moved through just about all night. Some
heavier showers continue for the northern valleys in response to
this enhanced lift from the jet and divergence aloft further
aiding in widespread lift. Precipitation will continue through
the morning hours but then an upper level trough and associated
cold front will drop down from our northern neighbors. This will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms starting
around noon along the CO/WY border with convection then firing
along the Bookcliffs around 3PM and then further south after
that. A closed low will form at the base of the upper level
trough heading towards midnight and as this low moves across our
area, precip continues overnight into Tuesday morning. The only
fly in the ointment with all this convection will be cloud
cover and what affect it will have. The current forecast does
call for considerable cloud cover so daytime heating may not aid
in convection too much but if the upper level dynamics are
strong enough, the cloud cover may not enter into it. Wouldn`t
be surprised to see more stratiform precip with some embedded
storms as the day progresses. We shall see. From the stronger
storms, look for gusty winds, small hail, and some heavy rain.
For the highest elevations (>12K ft), some very light snow will
be possible overnight (it is the first day of fall, after all).
Highs today will be right around normal, give or take, but will
drop to below normal tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
On Tuesday, the low pressure will cross the Divide and eject
out over the Plains. Lapse rates steeping behind the low and if
there is any lingering moisture it may allow for showers mainly
over the higher terrain. A weak ridge builds over the area on
Wednesday and Thursday causing conditions to dry out.
Temperatures will warm up a few degrees due to the ridge and
lack of precipitation. On Friday and next weekend a closed low
pressure is forecasted to drift over the Desert Southwest. As
that occurs it will open the door to southerly flow here, which
may advect moisture in from New Mexico. As a result chances for
precipitation increase especially across the southern CWA.
Details on how the low pressure evolves are still unknown. One
thing that is consistent is this system may move fairly slow and
could hang around the Southwest into early next week. But there
are signs the track could go into northern Mexico, which would
limit anything here.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms continue at this hour,
mainly for the northern half of the forecast area. This precip
will continue to track eastward this morning bringing midlevel
clouds to TAF sites and maybe a quick shower. Convection will
increase in coverage after 18Z with more showers and
thunderstorms expected. Almost all TAF sites continue to have
PROB30 groups for these showers and storms through the day and
into this evening and overnight. VFR will remain the predominant
flight category but some MVFR can`t be ruled out as stronger
storms and showers move over any TAF sites. ILS breakpoints will
be met for the same reasons. Some breaks in cloud cover and
precip will occur from time to time over the next 24 hours
though this unsettled weather will also continues through
tomorrow.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion