Toivola, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

136
FXUS63 KMQT 130629
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
229 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and a few thunderstorms this morning.
- Fog late tonight?
- Warmer temperatures mainly in the 70s through the forecast period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
A shortwave moving overhead is bringing rain showers and a few
embedded t-storms to the U.P. early this morning as it continues
southeast from the Upper Midwest towards the Ohio Valley today (as
can be seen from the latest satellite and radar imagery). As the
omega block moves overhead today, expect the showers and storms to
end by mid morning, with skies clearing out by the afternoon.
Overall, not much in the way of rainfall is expected with the
showers and storms from this shortwave this morning; NBM and WPC
guidance has spots at most receiving up to 0.30" of new liquid.
Given the clearing skies and increasing high pressure today/this
afternoon, thinking highs will be slightly warmer than what was
realized yesterday; thinking most spots will be in the lower to mid
70s, with a few isolated spots in the interior west potentially
flirting with 80F. In addition to the warmer temperatures, the high
pressure will keep winds light at the sfc. Therefore, by the
afternoon hours, expect the lake breezes from both Lake Superior and
Lake Michigan to begin pushing inland, although with the land to sea-
sfc temperature difference not being that large given that it`s the
end of the stable season/beginning of the unstable season, expect
the lake breezes to be fairly light by mid to late this afternoon.
Moving into the overnight hours, we may see some fog develop over
the U.P. late tonight. Because of this, low temperatures tonight
look to be moderated, only getting down into the mid 50s across the
area (should the fog verify). The fog may also be dense; will need
the day shift to take a look at dense fog chances across the area
tonight as a Dense Fog Advisory could be in the cards for much of
the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
High pressure remains in control from Sunday through much of the
coming week as ensembles continue to show good agreement on a stout
upper ridge gradually shifting eastward across northern Ontario
through Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to trend upward as a
result, with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s through the
period and even some low 80s across the western half of the U.P.
during the first half of next week. Latest NBM probabilistic
guidance gives the Marquette area around a 25-30% chance to reach 80
degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday. There remains some potential for
a few disturbances to clip the area with a few periods of showers
and thunderstorms next week as the ridge axis nudges east of the
area. Latest guidance has trended even drier for Monday and Tuesday,
generally keeping Pops out of our area before potentially spreading
into the U.P. Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR will be the predominant flight category with a few exceptions
early this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
make their way from northwest to southeast across Upper Michigan
early this morning. IWD is pretty much done with the precipitation,
but tempos are moreso needed at CMX and SAW through Sat 10Z until
activity exits the forecast area. In the wake of showers, fog
formation could result in MVFR/IFR visibility restrictions at CMX
and SAW through daybreak. Fog should dissipate by mid-morning with
onset of daytime heating. Winds will remain light and non-impactful.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Light winds of 20 knots or less are expected to continue over Lake
Superior this weekend through the middle of next week as a high
pressure block moves through the Upper Great Lakes and settles over
southeastern Canada/northeastern U.S. over the next several days.
Dry weather is expected to continue over the next several days, but
some showers and storms could return to the far western lake Monday
and Tuesday before pushing towards the rest of the lake Wednesday
and Thursday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...CB/TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion