Trinidad, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

614
FXUS65 KPUB 220529
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1129 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm again tomorrow with increasing thunder chances, then cold front
  passage late afternoon/evening.
- Closed low to move over state Tuesday-ish bringing high
  elevation snow and cool damp weather to a good part of the
  remainder of the region.
- Warming up again Thursday and onward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Currently...Broad upper ridge remains centered over Old Mexico,
while the next upper system to affect Colorado starts to take shape
over British Columbia. Isolated convection this afternoon has been a
bit more active, not so much across the central mts but more so over
the Pikes Peak region, spilling into Fremont County and down across
Colorado Springs. Temps as of 1 PM have warmed into the mid 60s to
lower 70s for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains.
Tonight...Upper system starts to strengthen and drop down into ID
and MT tonight, while flow aloft across Colorado becomes more
westerly. HRRR and NAMNest models indicate that ongoing shower and
storm activity across the Pikes Peak region should diminish and end
between 6 and 7 PM, then dry conditions with gradually increasing
high level cloudiness for the remainder of the night. Look for
overnight minimum temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s for the high
valleys, and 50s across the plains.
Tomorrow...Upper low system continues to deepen and drop south
across MT and into western WY through the day, becoming a closed
low by late afternoon. Increasing southwest flow aloft, bulk
wind shear and moisture advection will mean showers and
thunderstorms developing by late morning along the Continental
Divide, then rapidly spreading to all of the higher terrain and
Pikes Peak region by midday. Current range of models are
pointing to a cold front passage across the plains early
evening in the 5-7 PM timeframe, so precipitation chances as
well as strength of convection will quickly ramp up through the
evening for the eastern plains, where SPC has painted an area
for marginal severe threat roughly across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers,
eastern Las Animas and Baca counties. One more warm day on tap,
with highs in the mid 60s to around 70F for the high valleys,
and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains. Moore
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Monday night into Tuesday...Weather will become a bit more
active over the region. Confidence is high that it will become
much cooler over the region, and max temps only in the 50s to
around 70F for the plains looks reasonable. How much precip we
get will be dependent on the track and intensity of the incoming
mid level low. NAM guidance is more open and progressive while
the GFS and EC are a bit more farther west and more closed off.
If these two models verify, then we will see a much better
chance od deeper upslope flow and wrap- around moisture. At this
time, it appears the best chance of precip will be over the
Pikes Peak region and southern mtns. As for precip type, snow
will be possible at the highest elevations during this period
and expect the mtn tops will get a covering of snow with this
event. Lower elevations will likely see some flakes but not much
in the way off accums. Could monument hill see some
flakes?...maybe...and if would occur it would be Wed AM.
From mid week into the weekend, much drier wx and warmer weather
returns. We could see a return of a more monsoon pattern returning
by the weekend, but this will be dependent on the motion of a closed
low over the SW CONUS during this time period. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the rest of
tonight and for much of tomorrow as well. Winds will be light and
mainly diurnally driven through the first half of the TAF period,
with middle and upper-level cloud cover increasing throughout the
daytime hours. A cold front is expected to push across both stations
around the 00Z timeframe Monday evening, bringing in gusty north
winds and rain/thunderstorm chances through the rest of the evening
hours. We`ll see chances for brief reductions to MVFR reductions to
ceilings and visibilities with heavier showers throughout that
timeframe as well, though confidence in MVFR occurrence was too low
to include in either TAF at this time.
FOR KALS..VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the TAF
period. Winds will be mainly light and westerly. Showers will be
possible in the vicinity through much of the afternoon and evening
hours, generally from 21Z until 04Z. The most likely timeframe for
any showers or storms to move on station will be from 23Z until 02Z,
though confidence was too low (less than 30%) to include
precipitation chances on station at this point.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion