Trout Creek, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

357
FXUS63 KMQT 170635
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
235 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog are possible this morning over central Upper Michigan;
  fog could locally be dense along the Lake Michigan shores.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
  this afternoon across central and eastern Upper Michigan.
- Warm and humid conditions today with more seasonable
  temperatures Thursday and through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Omega block continues to sit over CONUS with a closed low over the
Mid-Atlantic, ridging stretching north from the Southern Plains into
the Great Lakes and Quebec, and a series of upstream troughs/closed
lows in the central Rockies and in Canada. At the surface, a low is
currently analyzed in Hudson Bay with a cold front draped south
into western Lake Superior with high pressure extending westward
across the Great Lakes from a high exiting New England. Showers and
thunderstorms from early this evening that formed ahead of the cold
front in the Arrowhead have lifted into Ontario while showers in
southern Minnesota have diminished. An isolated shower can`t be
ruled out over the west/Keweenaw as the front moves in over the next
couple hours. Otherwise, ahead of the boundary over Upper Michigan,
southerly flow has supported a mild and humid night, with widespread
60 to low 70 degree temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s and 50s
being observed. Some fog has also been observed in Manistique,
Escanaba, and Land O`Lakes. Expecting the possibility of patchy
dense fog to continue into the early morning hours as we continue to
cool this airmass. Most likely areas for fog would be over central
Upper Michigan near Lake Michigan.
Today, the cold front will press west to east through the area as
the mid-level trough dives south through Ontario/Quebec. The moist
airmass and today`s heating to near 80F or the low 80s for most
locations removed from Lake Superior will allow the atmosphere to
destabilize upwards of 2k j/kg ahead of the front. This will allow
showers and thunderstorms to develop by afternoon central and east.
Deep layer shear is lacking, so strong or severe thunderstorms
aren`t expected, but steeper mid-level lapse rates may support small
hail if a storm can organized enough. As this front clears the
region this evening, a secondary front will press into the area from
the north Thursday, which will allow for a cooler day with highs in
the 60s by Lake Superior and low 70s south. Latest CAMS have dialed
back daytime convection ahead of this secondary boundary save for
areas south of the forecast area.
High pressure migrating through Ontario ahead of stout mid-upper
level ridging Friday not only keeps most of the region dry, but
helps to stall out the next upstream system moving through the
Northern Plains. This negative tilted upper level low/trough and a
secondary upper level low eventually move through the Upper Great
Lakes Saturday through Monday. Being on the edge of the system
Friday may result in isolated showers over the far west, but higher
probabilities for precip move in Saturday and Sunday, and then again
Monday afternoon with the secondary wave. Temperatures look to peak
in this period in the upper 60s to low 70s while falling back into
the 50s overnight. Early next week, another trough looks to move
through central North America Monday. This may take on a negative
tilt then stall overhead, resulting in a deepening low pressure over
the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday/Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR will be the predominant flight category through the TAF period
with a few exceptions. First, will carry a tempo at all TAF sites
this morning from Wed 8-12Z for MVFR fog formation and possible IFR
fog at CMX in upslope flow. Also, a cold front later today could
bring some chances for TSRA/SHRA to SAW, which is highlighted with a
PROB30. Chances at IWD and CMX remain to low to insert mention at
this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A cold front is currently moving eastward through western Lake
Superior. Ahead of the boundary, southerly winds of 20kts or less
have been observed overnight. Pockets of higher winds near 25kts
have been noted along the lakeshores where terrain and downsloping
has resulted in localized accelerations. The front will continue
through the lake today with post frontal winds becoming westerly and
below 20kts. Isolated showers or thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
ahead of the front, mainly in eastern Lake Superior this afternoon.
Northeasterly to northerly winds follow tonight into Friday, ramping
up to 20 to 25kts across most of the western half of the lake. These
elevated winds may linger into Friday evening as the winds become
more easterly, save for going down into the Duluth Harbor, which
should continue to see northeasterly flow. The next system slowly
presses into the Great Lakes Saturday, supporting southeasterlies or
southerlies for the weekend. Currently expecting winds to remain
mostly below 20kts, but there is potential for 20-25kts along and
north of the international line in the eastern half of Lake Superior
Saturday afternoon and evening.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JTP

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion