Twin Oaks, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

959
FXUS64 KTSA 180515
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1215 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Well above average temperatures continue today for most
   locations ahead of passing cold front by this
   afternoon/evening.
-  Shower and thunderstorm chances increase /20-50 percent/ with
   frontal boundary today. A few marginally severe thunderstorms
   are possible along/ahead of the front.
- Temperatures drop closer to seasonal average with at least low
   shower and storm chances /20-30 percent/ by early next week as
   confidence remains low on how the upper air pattern evolves.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
The start of pattern change will occur today. An upper level low,
centered over NE/SD will fuse together with another, more potent
upper level low dropping south from Saskatchewan by late tonight. As
this occurs, a lobe/wave will rotate across the Plains this
afternoon into this evening. At the surface, a cold front will be
pushed across the Central/Southern Plains, pushing across the
forecast area this afternoon into this evening. Latest CAMs continue
to indicate widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
developing both ahead of the approaching front and along it, with
perhaps more isolated activity behind the boundary. As daytime
heating gets going, some atmospheric destabilization will occur,
with MUCAPE increasing between 1500-2000+ J/kg ahead of the front,
and steepening low level lapse rates. CAMs seem to focus stronger
storms initiating along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing cold
front around 2-3 PM. Although deep layer shear will be somewhat
weak, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the
forecast area, especially where storms cluster and/or tap into
pockets of higher instability. Main threats with the strongest
storms will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. With PWATs
ranging between 1.6 to 1.9 inches ahead of the front, localized
heavy rain will also be included as a main threat with storms, as
well. Localized flooding/flash flooding will certainly be a concern
through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Storms may linger
through the nighttime, but the severe threat is expected to end by
mid-late evening. The cold front may slow down and/or stall across
northwest AR and far southeast OK late tonight into Friday morning.
As far as temperatures, another abnormally hot mid-September day is
expected across eastern OK and northwest AR before todays cold
front pushes through the area. Afternoon highs will reach the upper
80s to lower 90s for most locations. Portions of Pawnee, Osage, and
Washington counties may see temperatures top out in the mid-80s
behind the front. Temperatures will drop a few degrees tonight into
Friday morning in the wake of the front, generally low-mid 60s for
most locations, still a few degrees above seasonal average.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Shower and thunderstorm chances will end west-to-east Friday
morning, possibly lingering into the afternoon across portions of
far southeast OK and northwest AR, as the mid/upper level trough
axis and surface cold front shift east of the area. The remainder of
the day Friday and Friday night look mostly dry as shortwave ridging
moves overhead. However, GFS still shows remnants of the surface
boundary lingering across far southeast OK/far northeast TX, which
may cause a few showers and thunderstorms to develop late Friday
afternoon/evening generally south of I-40. This scenario will be
monitored over the next couple of days. For now, will maintain the
NBM solution which shows dry conditions. The next rain-
maker/shortwave trough will advance over the Southern Plains
Saturday morning/afternoon. With low level warm air advection
returning, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop (20-40%) northwest-to-southeast ahead of the
trough axis Saturday into Saturday night. The shortwave trough axis
looks to gradually shift over the forecast area Saturday night into
Sunday before it exits to the east Sunday night. This will cause
widespread shower and thunderstorm chances to increase (40-60%)
Sunday into Sunday night. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be
possible by Saturday night, continuing into Sunday and perhaps into
early next week. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms
will also be possible Sunday into early next week. Details to come
later.
Forecast uncertainty rapidly increases by early to the mid part of
next week as the pattern is expected to amplify and remain
unsettled. There is still lots of discrepancies in model guidance
between Monday and Wednesday to pinpoint an accurate forecast at
this time. Temperatures are forecast to continue near or slightly
above seasonal normal temps, with low daily precip chances.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Timing potential for on-station thunderstorm impacts is the main
aviation challenge today. Current expectations are for a declining
batch of thunderstorms to move through the NE OK terminals near
and just after sunrise, with the chance of thunderstorms making it
this far east low enough to keep just a shower mention for now.
Another round of diurnal thunderstorms focused in W AR and into SE
OK is expected, with PROB30 groups included at MLC and the four W
AR sites although the timing window fine tuned from the earlier
TAFs. Finally, another round of thunderstorms remains on track to
move into the NE OK terminals late in the period, sweeping
southward, impacting the remaining sites after this TAF period.
Potential for locally IFR conditions will exist, along with
convective wind gusts, neither of which will be included in the
terminals given continued uncertainties. In addition to the
thunderstorm impacts, another round of reduced visibilities at FYV
should occur during the first portion of the TAF period, although
high clouds should keep the reductions MVFR for the most part.
Winds will become predominantly from a westerly direction by the
afternoon in response to a frontal passage.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  66  86  68 /  40  60  20  10
FSM   93  68  88  68 /  50  50  30  10
MLC   92  65  88  67 /  50  60  40  10
BVO   85  61  85  63 /  50  70  10  10
FYV   89  62  85  63 /  50  60  40  10
BYV   89  64  84  62 /  50  60  50  10
MKO   91  65  86  67 /  40  60  30  10
MIO   88  63  84  63 /  50  70  30  10
F10   90  64  87  66 /  30  60  30  10
HHW   92  67  87  66 /  30  40  30  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion