Two Harbors, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

341
FXUS63 KDLH 141454
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
954 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog and low clouds will spread over portions of the
  Northland before sunrise, and clear out through the morning
  hours.
- Unseasonably warm and summer-like temperatures are expected
  through Wednesday. Highs in the 70s to low 80s.
- On-and-off chances for showers and storms for the next week,
  beginning tonight.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Tossed out a Dense Fog Advisory through 11 AM this morning with
a report of and webcams showing dense fog around the Twin
Ports. It should be fairly slow to lift this morning with
persistent onshore flow, but as it has been the past few days,
the dense fog should improve eventually. It`s possible that
dense fog could linger a bit longer at the top of the hill in
the Twin Ports with orographic lift keeping it there, so I`ll be
monitoring trends through the morning and adjust the headline
accordingly.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
With continued east to northeast winds across western Lake
Superior, low clouds and fog have formed again tonight at the
head of the lake extending westward south of US-2 and across
northwest Wisconsin. Satellite trends show the low stratus now
expanding northward, with patchy fog mixed in. Low clouds and
fog will lift through the morning hours today, much like the
last few mornings.
An upper level ridge over the region will slowly shift eastward
today, with southerly low and mid level winds continuing to
advect warmer air and moisture northward. This will help push
temperatures today into the 70s and lower 80s, except for along
the immediate shorelines where temperatures warm into the 60s. A
strong shortwave will pivot northward through the Plains today
and into south central Canada. This will bring showers and a
few storms to the Northland tonight, mainly south of US-2. There
is weak elevated instability with bulk shear values of
25=30kts, so cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two, but severe
storms are not expected. Shower/storm coverage expands Monday to
much of the area. Drier air under the ridge will keep portions
of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin dry.
By Tuesday, the upper level continues to be pushed eastward as
troughing pushes toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley,
keeping the Northland under persistent southwesterly flow
through much of the week, with above normal temperatures and
humidity the result. Impulses rotating through the trough will
allow for periods of rain and thunderstorms. There is some model
inconsistency with the timing of these impulses, which would
determine when the better rain chances occur. Latest model
guidance suggests a large upper low will break from the upper
trough and spin over the area the end of the week, bringing the
best rain chances to the Northland Thursday and Friday. The
upper low would also bring a return to normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Low stratus has spread inland from western Lake Superior this
morning, with IFR/LIFR conditions at DLH, HIB, and BRD. Another
status deck is spreading northward through Wisconsin, and expect
LIFR cigs to arrive at HYR before 12Z. As the sun rises, cigs
and any fog will lift slowly, with VFR conditions expected by
mid day. Another round of light fog and low stratus is expected
tonight.
Winds will increase from the east this morning, with gusts up
to 18kts during the day at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 952 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Extended Dense Fog Advisory until 18z (1 PM). Fog has not lifted
at the Duluth harbor per webcams, and may persist several more
hours. There is low confidence for what time it may lift for
visibilities to improve, and there is a possibility with
continued onshore flow that the fog could persist into the
afternoon, so I will keep an eye on trends and may need to
extend the advisory into the afternoon if needed. No other
changes since the previous update.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for MNZ037.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ141>146-150.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ144>146.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HA
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...JDS

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion