Tyrone, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

549
FXUS64 KAMA 211745
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1245 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Precipitation chances return Monday with potential to see severe
thunderstorms capable of all hazards, primarily in the
northeastern combined Panhandles.
Thunderstorm chances remain on the lower side next week, but are
possible Tuesday through Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Mostly quiet with near normal afternoon highs in store for this
afternoon into the overnight. Tomorrow will be the main story in the
short term. High pressure will continue to build into tomorrow
before getting shunted by an upper level low pressure system moving
into the Plains starting tomorrow night. Thanks to the upper high
pressure building a bit, Monday`s afternoon highs are progged to get
into the 90s across the combined Panhandles. Upper 90s for the
canyon and areas off the caprock. A slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms exists for Monday afternoon and evening, but the
main concern will be the overnight.
Tomorrow night, a positively tilted upper level trough will begin
swinging into the Plains from the Rockies, with a low centered
around CO/WY, bringing showers and thunderstorms to western KS
and NE. This system is expected to bring a cold front into the
combined Panhandles late Mon night into Tuesday morning. But also,
bring some thunderstorm chances especially to the northeastern
combined Panhandles. Depending on the how much of the western to
south central KS activity comes into the Panhandles. Models are
in quite a bit of disagreement as how things will play out, but
there is some hints that there could be some late night severe
storms.
Monday nights severe potential is still in question. The RAP
suggests some late night surface based CAPE while the HRRR is
capped. If the RAP is right, one cannot rule out all hazards being
in play to include the potential for a tornado or two. Will have to
keep monitoring trends in guidance through tonight and tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
With a cold front progged to come into the Panhandles
Mon night/early Tue morning, surface winds are progged to be out of
the north Tue through Wed night. The front is expected to bring
Tue temperatures back down to near normal from the above normal
temps expected tomorrow. Wed should be the coolest day with
temps in the 70s across much of the combined Panhandles. Besides
some showers lingering in the area Tue into Tue night, low
potential for thunder, with the continued presences of an upper
level trough, the rest of the extended period looks to remain
mostly dry with temperatures returning to near normal in the 80s
Thu into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours with
light and variable winds.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion