Vega, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

582
FXUS64 KAMA 291738
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A low chance (10%) for light showers across the area this
afternoon. Weekend rain uncertainties continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Today, PoPs have been expanded across the FA; however, they remain
on the lower end (10%) due to our lack of confidence in coverage and
minimal QPF. Current radar shows light (20 dbz) returns moving
northward from West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Enough
moisture is present for some sprinkles and light rain to occur
this afternoon. Little to no instability is present today for
thunderstorm formation, so most precipitation will occur from
stratiformic processes. Locations that receive rainfall today will
struggle to accumulate 0.01" or more given how weak this activity
is projected to be.
Highs today should range between the upper 70`s and lower 80`s.
Based off the current cloud coverage, our eastern zones will have an
easier time reaching 80 since skies are mostly clear. Elsewhere, it
will be more of a challenge, especially if it rains. Amarillo and
part surrounding may barely hit 80 today, allowing
climatologically average temperatures to continue today.
Tomorrow, high temperatures should be slightly warmer across the
CWA. Low to mid 80`s are expected for Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning, some 12Z CAMs show light showers
developing off of a shortwave trough in the eastern Panhandles. PoPs
will remain unmodified for now due to our low confidence in the
event. If short term models continue to show favorable conditions
for showers tomorrow night, amendments will be made.
Rangel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
No major changes for the long term forecast period.
Upper level ridging continues through most of the extended. 500
mb heights have increase more than previous forecast runs, so mid
and low level temperatures are also coming in warmer. By Thursday
and Friday, some places in the CWA could see high temperatures
return to the 90`s. Long range guidance is still keen on bringing
in an upper level trough from the Pacific Northwest to the central
CONUS next weekend. The strength and position of the trough will
dictate potential temperature reductions and our moisture flux.
Currently, models suggest the trough may not push far enough south
into the combined Panhandles to create dynamic changes to our
current weather pattern. The NBM keeps highs in the lower 80`s and
PoPs less than 25% both Saturday and Sunday. We will leave the
NBM as such until we see more forecast consistency.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next 24 hours. Breezy,
southerly winds are expected across the area, but will mainly
effect DHT and GUY. Later this evening, winds will return to light
speeds.
Rangel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion