Vigo Park, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

536
FXUS64 KLUB 281721
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Cooler weather is expected tomorrow with meager rain chances
   across the CFWA.
- Heat returns midweek with no foreseeable rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The upper level trough over AZ is expected to begin trekking east
over NM with some amplification and negative tilting over southern
NM. Model guidance is producing a strong signal for mid-to-upper
level moisture, indicating the presence for thicker high clouds that
will serve to inhibit incoming and outgoing solar radiation tonight
and tomorrow. As such, lows tonight will stay in the high 50s and
low 60s across the CWFA, and highs tomorrow to stay in the high 70s
to low 80s, with localized mid-80s spots below the caprock. Winds
will generally be out of the ESE but stay below 10 kts. Rain chances
across the CFWA are meager with expected low surface and low-level
RH values. However, any organized convection in eastern NM may roll
east across the NM/TX border into the far west counties, but likely
won`t survive much further east. Otherwise, any breaks in the high-
cloud shield, especially coupled with resultant outflow boundaries
from convection in the NM plains can influence local updrafts which
may turn into high-base convection, but confidence for that is
currently low.
Garber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Monday evening starts with the upper trough axis bisecting the
forecast area before exiting to our northeast early Tuesday morning.
Subsidence on the backside of this trough will clear out the
remaining swath of mid and high clouds making for a sunny and warmer
Tuesday. This theme only amplifies for the remainder of the week as
ridging expands from western Mexico to the Lower Great Lakes.
Unfortunately, this spells a very warm start to October with above-
normal highs in the 90s for much of our area and no rain chances.
Recent GFS runs have keyed on an impulse in NW flow for Wednesday
immediately downstream of the building ridge, although such paltry
moisture preceding this wave looks unsupportive of even 20 PoPs. By
Friday, models remain at odds with the depth of an upper trough in
split flow over the Pacific Northwest and how soon this wave nudges
our ridge farther east. The GFS and GEFS mean favor a deeper and
more amplified trough through the Great Basin which serves to keep
our ridge parked, whereas the ECMWF and EPS are more shallow and
broad with the trough which collapses our ridge faster complete with
some precip. However, the latter solution is not compelling enough
to warrant changing the dry and warm NBM theme through next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions will prevail. A brief westerly wind shift with
higher gusts may impact PVW and LBB from 19Z-21Z.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion