Vincent, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

446
FXUS64 KBMX 021839
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
139 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
- Dry conditions continue through Saturday as drought continues
   to worsen across Central Alabama.
- A weak disturbance in the Gulf will bring 20-40% rain chances
   Sunday and Monday, but chances of rainfall amounts exceeding 1
   inch are 15% or less.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
1035mb high pressure over the Northeast is resulting in wedging
along the East Coast and easterly low-level flow across Central
Alabama. This dry air mass will continue to suppress shower
activity this afternoon, while the winds and lower dew points will
make it feel more comfortable to be outside. The lower dew points
will allow low temperatures to fall into the 50s across the
majority of the area tonight, but with enough of a pressure
gradient/associated easterly winds that there will likely be
plenty of temperature variation between unsheltered and sheltered
locations. Conditions will remain similar on Friday with easterly
winds as a weak upper low closes off over MS/LA. Dew points creep
up some as Atlantic moisture advects in from the east, which
should prevent any critical fire weather/red flag concerns.
32/JDavis
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
Ridging builds across the eastern CONUS over the weekend
downstream of a trough in the west. A broad mid-level height
weakness/cyclonic circulation will be centered along the northern
Gulf Coast. NHC is monitoring a disturbance associated with an old
frontal boundary and the weakening upper low for any development,
but chances for any weak tropical development are only 10 percent.
The column will begin to saturated as PWATs approach 2 inches
Sunday/Monday, but lift and instability remain weak. Highest rain
chances will be during this period, and may increase in a few
spots where more focused isentropic lift develops, however
rainfall should generally be light to moderate where it occurs.
NBM 72h probabilities of exceeding 1 inch of rain are only 15
percent or less across the area, and no hazardous impacts are
expected other than isolated thunder. As the western trough pushes
eastward across the north-central CONUS by midweek, a cold front
will approach the area. This will keep low rain chances going
through Wednesday but forcing will remain fairly weak.
32/JDavis
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Winds will remain out of the east, with gusts up to 20kts during
the daylight hours.
32/JDavis
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain-free conditions are expected until Sunday. RH values will
drop into the 30s areawide this afternoon, and once again
tomorrow afternoon in northern and western portions of the area.
20ft wind gusts will reach 17 mph at times. A moderate risk of
significant fire potential is outlooked for Friday across portions
of the area, but RHs and winds will not reach red flag criteria. 20-40%
rain chances return to the forecast Sunday and Monday, but
amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening drought.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     54  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    56  81  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  59  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  59  86  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      58  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      60  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  61  83  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        61  81  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...32/JDavis
LONG TERM....32/JDavis
AVIATION...32

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion