Wagener, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

552
FXUS62 KCAE 181045
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
645 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Although a weak upper level trough remains over the region, the
airmass remains relatively dry. This will keep mostly dry
weather and warming temps into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Mainly dry and warm conditions will continue.
Weak upper trough remains across the region through tonight.
Much of the forecast area will remain on the dry side again.
However HRRR is still showing the potential for an isolated
shower or storm across the southern Midlands and
central/southern CSRA through the day and into the late
afternoon. Current radar does show a few isolated showers across
Bamberg and Barnwell counties, mainly associated with weak
shortwave moving through, along with a weak surface wave that
moved out of eastern Ga early this morning. This activity should
diminish during the morning. Later this afternoon as the sea-
breeze moves inland and brings a slight increase in moisture
behind it, can not rule out additional isolated shower
development south. Confidence in development and coverage is
still on the lower side, so will keep the afternoon forecast dry
at this time. Afternoon highs continue with a warming trend,
with readings in the upper 80s to around 90. For tonight, dry
through the night. Light winds, clearing skies, and dry air
should allow for another night with good radiational cooling.
Overnight lows in the middle 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and warm conditions as we head into the weekend.
In the wake of the upper low exiting and associated troughing lift
northeast away from our area, steady height rises are expected for
Friday and Saturday along with broad weak surface ridging. With a
lack of any advection but still high sun angle, temps will warm
above average both days and general subsidence aloft should keep
cloud cover scattered along despite near average PWAT`s. High temps
should climb to around 90 F for most of the area both days and some
onshore component surface flow will push dew points into the mid
60`s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Modest cooldown expected as strong surface high pressure
  builds in.
Into next week, the synoptic pattern aloft will not change all that
much through the rest of the long term period with relatively weak
flow and steady heights. However, a sharp trough digging across the
NE CONUS and coupled surface high upstream will leading to steadily
increasing surface ridging over the area starting Sunday. Some
subtle cold-dry advection look to be associated with this sagging
surface high, so temps will generally fall back around average
Sunday through Tuesday. NAEFS consistently shows this strong surface
ridging and southwesterly flow aloft, this could be a decent wedge
setup if it wasn`t for the lack of sufficient PWAT`s and low level
moisture; otherwise the dry and rather unremarkable looks to
continue with NAEFS and EC EFI showing nothing particularly
anomalous into next week. The next chance for any appreciable
rain begins the middle of next as a decent percentage of the ECE
and GEFS show a wave of higher PWAT`s overrunning the in place
surface ridging.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions still possible in the CSRA towards sunrise.
Otherwise mainly VFR conditions expected at all terminals.
Skies have clouded up some in the CSRA sites of ags/dnl, along
with some patchy ground fog developing. This should continue
past sunrise, then clouds should scatter out more through the
morning. Will keep a tempo group for an hour at ags/dnl/ogb for
the patchy fog formation, then conditions improve to vfr. A few
showers currently east of ags/dnl, and south of ogb this
morning should remain outside of taf locations, and slowly
dissipate. As for winds, mainly light and variable around 5
knots through the day, then near calm conditions through the
overnight hours.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A relatively dry air mass will be
over the region for much of the extended and no significant
aviation restrictions expected. However brief periods of early
morning fog/stratus remains possible at AGS and OGB.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion