635 FXUS66 KPQR 102221 AFDPQRArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 321 PM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Conditions trend drier the next several days as lingering shower and thunderstorm chances (primarily over the Oregon Cascades) begin to dwindle. Expect a brief warm-up for the first half of the weekend. While the forecast becomes more uncertain Sunday onward, especially by the middle of next week, cooler and wetter weather Sunday into Monday is favored with a 50-70% chance for rainfall.
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.DISCUSSION...Now through Tuesday night...An upper-level low continues to churn over northern California and far southern Oregon this afternoon remaining the primary driver of impacts for the next day or two. Current satellite and radar observations depict showers and thunderstorms developing over the Oregon and Washington Cascades as of 1400-1500 today thanks to some diurnal heating along the crests and the influence of that aforementioned upper-level low just to our south. Model soundings show a fairly deep but "thin" CAPE profile (~500-1000j/kg) in addition to ENE steering flow so while the chance for any strong severe thunderstorms are very low (
NWS PQR Office Area Forecast Discussion