Warren, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

978
FXUS64 KLCH 091126
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
626 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Surface high pressure will allow for dry conditions with cooler
  than normal night time lows and comfortable humidity during the
  daytime.
- Temperatures will warm from the middle to latter part of the
  week as surface high pressure weakens and winds become more from
  the east and southeast.
- An upper level high will build over the region late in the week
  keeping rain chances out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A surface high pressure currently over the NE US is extending
southward across the Southern Plains. As a result, dry N to NE
flow will continue across the region. This flow, coupled with
clear nocturnal skies, will allow for some radiational cooling,
with overnight min temps forecast to fall into the upper 50s to
lower 60s, approximately 6 to 10 degrees below climo norms. By
Tuesday, the high will weaken and drift off. Additionally, a weak
surface low of the FL Gulf Coast is forecast to gradually open as
it drifts westward into the Central Gulf. While the surface low
is projected to remain far enough offshore, an increase in
moisture could trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms across
portions of south CenLA and other coastal areas on Tuesday and
possibly Wednesday. NBM guidance depicts low PoPs for both days,
though, and no adjustments to the forecast were made at this time.
By Wednesday, an upper ridge will begin to amplify over Texas,
which is expected to suppress convection and promote a warming
trend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The warming trend initiated in the short term shall unfortunately
continue as the building upper ridge is forecast to persist in the
extended period. The ridge is expected to remain in place over
Texas for the majority of the period before shifting away toward
the weekend. This persistent feature will maintain low precip
chances and result in temperatures 2 to 7 degrees above climo
norms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds will be
from the ENE around 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
High pressure ridging down from the northeast will allow for a
modest northeast flow and relatively low seas. Mid work week, a
weak surface low off the Gulf Coast of FL will slowly open up as
it moves westward into the Central Gulf. This will assist in
increasing showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday, especially
over the southern Gulf marine zones. Winds will generally be
easterly with seas 1 to 3 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Dry and cool weather to persist into tomorrow with little to no
rain chances. Minimum relative humidity values will fall into the
mid 30s to 40s across the area on Tuesday, with dry northerly
flow around 3 to 10 MPH. Temperatures and moisture to increase
going into the mid work week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  67  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  89  70  92  72 /   0   0  10   0
LFT  90  70  92  70 /  10   0  10   0
BPT  89  69  92  72 /   0   0  10  10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...14

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion