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Watson, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

170
FXUS64 KLIX 210450
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1150 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

If you step back a day or so, models showed weak ridging aloft over the southeastern US over the weekend but starting to weaken going into next week. Well, looks like that ridge is breaking down a little faster than previous forecasts as weak shortwave slides through the Lower Mississippi River Valley Sunday into Monday. CAMs really seem to have a better grasp on what that translates to in terms of rain potential in that timeframe compared to global models. Thus, increased POPs for Sunday by a good 10-15% for many areas which puts areal coverage in the 20-40% range. Not looking at high- end storms but a few strong ones not out of the question looking at sounding profiles.

MEFFER &&

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Latest suite of global model runs are aiming for latter half of this upcoming week for next local pattern change. Overall agreement in those solutions suggests a PACNW trough dropping down southeast across the Rockies mid week and amplifying as it tracks into and through the southern US. That bring a decent chance for rain and quite noticeable drop in temps end of the week into next weekend. While similar solutions would tend to increase longer term forecast confidence, not quite there yet considering said trough is offshore attm and not being sampled by UA network. In addition, the featured trough/low is really just a piece of what`s up there now. So, we`ll see how the next several runs go to get a better idea as to what to expect late this week.

MEFFER &&

.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

VFR conditions in place this evening should hold until midday Sunday when CU field develops. Weak shortwave brings return of scattered showers/storms on Sunday. Will say its borderline whether PROB30 can be justified but have them in TAFs regardless. Even with scattered convection, likely still going to be

MEFFER &&

.MARINE... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Surface ridge will remain generally east to northeast of the coastal waters throughtout the forecast period. This will yield light onshore winds around 10 knots +/-5kts and seas around 2 feet. Increased rain chances the next couple days means higher potential for temporary wind direction changes, increases and a bump in seas. Otherwise, minimal marine hazards expected.

MEFFER &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 91 68 90 / 10 30 10 10 BTR 70 92 70 91 / 0 40 10 30 ASD 68 90 69 89 / 0 20 0 20 MSY 74 92 75 91 / 0 20 10 20 GPT 72 90 72 87 / 10 10 10 10 PQL 68 92 68 89 / 10 10 0 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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