Weirsdale, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

476
FXUS62 KJAX 091420
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1020 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Minor adjustments were done to the forecast with PoPs and wind
speeds offshore. We also extended the Coastal Flood Advisory to
include the rest of the St. Johns River as some of the River
Gauges are nearing Minor Flood Stage.
Gusty conditions continue along the coast this morning, with some
sites reporting gusts in the 35mph to 40 mph. Northeasterly winds
will continue to bring in waves of showers and storms onshore and
into inland locations through the rest of the day, with NE FL
continuing to be the focus for highest chances of precipitation,
as PWATs sit above 2 inches, and coastal SE GA still expected to see
some showers and storms through the day.
Daytime highs will be in the lower 80s area wide today, with
cooler temps for those areas which see persistent waves of showers
moving inland from the coast. Overnight lows in the 70s across the
coast and NE FL, with upper 60s along interior SE GA.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
A slow moving frontal boundary will be just south of the area
through Tonight, with high pressure to the north. The combination of
convergence along frontal zone, and diurnal heating will result in
convective development Today. The greatest chance will be across
NE FL, where better moisture resides. Dewpoints across inland SE
GA, will be about 10 degrees lower than coastal NE FL.
Due to the pressure gradient between the high and the front, the
elevated winds will continue over the coastal waters Today, keeping
winds quite gusty at the coast. The gradient is generally strongest
north of St Augustine.
Temperatures will be below normal this period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The frontal boundary will sink into southern FL this period, as high
pressure ridge builds from the north. Precipitation chances will
once again be greatest over NE FL due to proximity to frontal
zone, but drier air will filter south across region throughout
this period. So, SE GA will largely be dry Wednesday, then on
Thursday it will be largely dry northwest of a line from Lake City
to Fernandina Beach.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The high will build to the northeast Friday. Long range models are
showing an inverted trough developing near the coast in the onshore
flow pattern. This trough would tighten the pressure gradient
leading to enhanced onshore flow, and elevated winds at the coast
over the weekend. The position of the trough and the high to the
north will also allow drier air to advect south into region.
Precipitation chances this period, will be limited to areas near
the coast.
Expecting bands of showers to develop in the trough this period,
with this activity moving ashore, before dissipating in the drier
inland airmass.
Below normal temperatures are expected this period. With the dry
airmass inland, and more moist onshore flow at the coast, there will
be wide ranges in overnight readings of around 10 degrees between
coast and inland. The temperature gradient will be fairly sharp at
night along coastal counties. For example, lows over Duval county
will range from the mid 60s inland to lower 70s at the beach front
communities.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 0803 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Northeasterly winds will continue through the TAF period, with
coastal sites seeing gusts in the 25-30 knot range and inland
locations a bit lower in the 20-25 knot range. Showers are
expected to move onshore throughout the day, with periods of TSRA
during the afternoon hours possible for some of TAF sites. MVFR
cigs will continue through the majority day for most of the TAF
sites as moisture from the Atlantic moves onshore.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The region will be between high pressure to the north and northeast,
and a frontal zone to the south through this week into the weekend.
A tightened gradient Today, will keep winds elevated. The wind will
decrease Wednesday and Thursday. An inverted trough is expected to
develop along the coast Friday into the weekend, leading to another
round of elevated winds.
Rip currents: High through Wednesday
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Enhanced northeast flow will continue to produce coastal flood
potential through this evenings high tide. The winds come down
Tuesday night into Wednesday, decreasing flood potential.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  65  86  62 /  20  10  10   0
SSI  80  72  82  70 /  40  30  30  10
JAX  82  72  84  70 /  70  50  50  20
SGJ  83  73  84  74 /  90  70  70  40
GNV  84  70  85  69 /  80  50  60  20
OCF  83  72  84  71 /  90  50  70  20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for GAZ154-166.
High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for GAZ154-
     166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ450-452-
     470-472.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion