631 FXUS64 KBRO 230557 AAA AFDBROArea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The combination of abundant moisture, daytime heating and the approach of a cold front will maintain unsettled weather across Deep South Texas through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will move into central Texas on Wednesday. The best rain chances look to be on Thursday as moisture pools (PWATs 2"+) along and ahead of the cold front. There is a medium (40-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. There some uncertainty if the frontal boundary will push through Deep South Texas or stall over or north of the region. There is a low to medium (20 to 60%) chance of rain Thursday night into Friday, especially if the front stalls across the area. Any showers or thunderstorms that develop have the potential to produce locally heavy rain that could lead to nuisance flooding, especially on roadways and low lying areas. Rain chances will continue into the weekend into early next week.
Hot and humid conditions will continue through midweek with near to slightly above normal temperatures. The Heat Risk will be Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees will be likely Tuesday and Wednesday with some locations briefly reaching around 112 degrees. However, heat indices Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria advisory. The combination abundant cloud cover, increasing rain chances and a possible weak cold front in the area may lead to slightly below normal temperatures late this week and into the weekend. The Heat Risk will drop to Minor (level 1 out of 4) Friday through Monday.
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Light winds for the night hours will bookend breezy winds during the daylight hours. Precipitation is not expected, but a highly isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out.
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.MARINE... Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Light to moderate winds and generally low seas will prevail through the period. There is a low to medium (20-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. The best rain chances are expected on Thursday as a weak front may move into the Lower Texas Coastal waters. Winds and seas will be locally higher near any showers and thunderstorms.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 94 78 91 / 10 40 30 70 HARLINGEN 77 96 76 92 / 0 30 30 70 MCALLEN 80 99 79 95 / 0 20 30 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 101 76 93 / 0 10 40 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 81 88 / 20 40 50 70 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 77 89 / 10 30 40 70
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.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
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NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion