Wetmore, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMQT 160642
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
242 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers and possibly a rumble of thunder are possible
  late tonight and Wednesday, mainly over western Upper
  Michigan.
- Warm and humid weather through Wednesday, then more seasonable temperatures
  into the weekend.
- Areas of fog are possible again tonight; fog could be dense.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
In a general sense, current GOES water vapor imagery and RAP
analysis depict an omega blocking pattern across CONUS, with
deviations to the traditional omega look thanks to two closed
lows/troughs stacked southwest to northeast from the northern
Rockies into the Lake Winnipeg region. Near Lake Winnipeg, a surface
low and a series of surface boundaries are noted. Further upstream,
ridging is noted stretching up the west coast. Over the Great Lakes,
mid to upper level ridging dominates the region northward well into
Hudson Bay with a surface high downstream in Quebec, which is
extending ridging westward into our forecast area. This places much
of the forecast area in south to southwest flow, which is sustaining
a moist and warm airmass. High pressure and ridging is also
supporting enough subsidence to keep most of the forecast area cloud
free. In turn, overnight temps have only cooled from the upper 50s
east to upper 60s west. Dewpoints are also in the 50s and 60s. Fog
has been noted at SAW, ESC, IMT and MNM so far. With decreasing
dewpoint depressions expected over the next few hours as we
continue to cool, more widespread patchy fog is expected to
develop by sunrise. Most likely areas for this, per CAMs, will
be across the south-central and eastern UP areas.
Today into Thursday, the pattern will evolve with all the troughs
and closed mid-upper level lows gradually migrating eastward. The
low/trough near Lake Winnipeg will pull a cold front through Upper
Michigan tonight and Wednesday while the parent surface low moves
through Hudson Bay. Convection ahead of the front may include
embedded thunderstorms thanks to the warm and moist airmass
supporting MUCAPE values of ~2k j/kg, but deep layer shear is very
limited, so significant organization isn`t expected. By afternoon on
Wednesday, the same is currently expected: showers and thunderstorms
may develop thanks to daytime destabilization ahead of the front, but
strong or severe storms are not expected. Daytime temperatures today
will break into the 80s for most locations removed from Lake
Michigan, with mid 80s across the interior west and southerly
downslope prone areas. Mid to upper 70s are expected elsewhere.
Similar daytime highs are expected Wednesday. Behind the front
Thursday, daytime peak temperatures in the 60s and 70s are expected.
Overnight lows tonight and Wednesday night are expected to fall into
the 60s and 50s.
Thursday and through the weekend, the omega pattern weakens some,
but it still remains overhead central and eastern CONUS thanks to
continued ridging over the Great Lakes and the stretching of ridging
into central Canada atop a closed low over the Northern Plains.
Rotating around the closed low will be several impulses and the
eventual occlusion of a surface low. 18z and 0z guidance suggests the
departing front stretching westward and stalling may be the focus
for isolated or scattered showers/storms into Thursday across the
west half, but overall, mostly dry conditions are expected for most
at least until Saturday and Sunday when this system shifts through
the Great Lakes. Temperatures Friday and through the weekend mostly
peak in the 60s while overnight lows fall into the 50s by the
lakeshores and upper 40s interior.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Primarily VFR conditions are expected during the 0Z TAF period with
the one exception being patchy FG/BR at SAW ahead of sunrise. A
limiting factor may be winds staying too elevated and preventing FG
formation from resulting in restrictions, but opted to continue MVFR
mention between 9-12Z. There only is around a 15-30% chance for vis
to 1mi or lower during that timeframe. Any BR/FG that forms will
clear out by 12Z, leaving VFR through the rest of the fcst period.
Otherwise, mainly S winds between 5-10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Southerly winds of 20kts or less are mostly expected on Lake
Superior today, then shift to light westerlies behind a cold front
moving through the region Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorms may
move over the western and central portions of the lake tonight ahead
of the front, which may continue into Wednesday into the eastern
portions of the lake. Winds begin increasing late Wednesday
night/Thursday from the northeast. Guidance continues to suggest
winds of 20 to 25kts may span much of the western half of the lake
into Friday night when they become more widespread and shift to
southeasterlies ahead of the next approaching system from the west.
These southeasterlies become southerlies for the weekend, but
look to remain at or below 20kts.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...JTP

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion