Weyers Cave, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

600
FXUS61 KLWX 211857
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
257 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Continued onshore flow will yield cooler and cloudy conditions
today. A warm front will lift north through the area tonight
into Monday bringing warmer temperatures and scattered mountain
thunderstorms. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue offshore
Tuesday allowing a cold front and upper level low to move toward
the region. Beneficial precipitation chances will accompany
this midweek through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Continued onshore flow today prior to the warm frontal passage
tonight will yield cooler temperatures and increased low level
cloudiness across the region. The stratus looks to hold tough across
most of the area throughout the day likely eroding across
central/eastern VA and the western Alleghenies this afternoon and
evening as a warm front lifts northward into the region.
The warm front continues to lift north tonight into early Monday
while surface high pressure shifts further off the northern New
England coast. As a result, expect the wedge to continue to erode as
southerly return flow takes over yielding warmer temperatures and
increased moisture across the region for the start of the new week.
Lows tonight will fall back into the mid to upper 50s and low 60s.
Some fog cannot be ruled out especially in the river valleys and in
areas that see substantial clearing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As high pressure moves offshore Monday, a warm front will lift
through the region. Further west, a cold front and upper-level
cutoff low will traverse through the Central Plains with pieces of
energy/shortwaves pushing east Monday and Tuesday. The main ULL does
not advect eastward until the middle to later parts of the week. Any
precipitation Monday and Tuesday is likely confined to areas west of
the Blue Ridge. More widespread precipitation looks to arrive with
the front and several pieces of energy tracking along it Wednesday
into the upcoming weekend (see Long Term below).
Any showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday could produce brief
gusty winds and higher rain rates given anomalous PWs, but coverage
is expected to be rather scattered. Flood threat appears rather low
given ongoing drought. Would have to have a storm lock onto some
terrain feature to likely have issues, but given the increased flow
aloft, this looks unlikely.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will climb back into the upper 70s and low
to mid 80s (low 70s mountains). Skies will turn partly to mostly
cloudy both days with more sun in the east compared to western
portions of the forecast area. Overnight lows will fall into the
upper 50s and low to mid 60s. Some river/mountain valley fog is
possible during the late night/early morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Wednesday, a closed low will likely be located over the central
Plains or upper midwest. At the surface, a wavy front will stretch
from Texas to New England. Low pressure will consolidate and lift
toward the Great Lakes during the second half of the week. High
pressure moving across Maine will tend to keep the frontal section
stalled across the Mid Atlantic. Overall, this portends a cloudier
and unsettled period as the closed low/trough slowly meanders
eastward. Precipitable water values will increase to 1.5-2 inches as
moisture is drawn northward ahead of the trough. Cloud cover will
likely limit instability, but some occasional thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out. Ensemble guidance indicates the highest rain chances
Thursday and Friday when there is the greatest model agreement on
the approaching forcing. Overall, rainfall should be beneficial in
nature, but will have to keep an eye on mesoscale features and any
local saturation after multiple days of potential rain. The warmest
day will likely be Wednesday with some locations pushing into the
80s. However, even temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are pretty
close to normal now. Overnight temperatures will remain well above
normal thanks to dew points well into the 60s.
Confidence decreases into next weekend as to how quickly the
trough/low and its associated cold front depart. However, there are
indications the jet stream over Canada will become more active,
breaking down the blocking ridge to the north.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low level clouds (IFR to MVFR) look to hang around through at least
mid if not late afternoon with a slow erosion of the wedge down
across central/eastern VA and central/eastern MD.
Some improvements have been observed, but typical locales that hang
onto the wedge clouds have yet to break. Skies will remain BKN-OVC
through the overnight period although some of the cloud cover will
likely scatter out in eastern and southern zones later this
afternoon into the early evening hours.
Another round of stratus and perhaps some fog tonight as a warm
front lifts through the region. This could result in some MVFR/IFR
CIG restrictions.
VFR conditions return for Monday into Tuesday as a warm front lifts
north of the region and high pressure pushes offshore. A shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out west of a line from KHGR/KMRB to
KCHO as the warm front lifts north and several pieces of energy pass
to the north and west of the region. This may lead to temporary sub-
VFR reductions on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. The front combined
with high pressure moving offshore will shift the winds from the
east on Sunday back to the south and southwest Monday into Tuesday.
Expect gusts between 10 to 15 kts mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours (especially at terminals near the waters and along the
ridges).
A front will remain stalled near the area during the second half of
the week. Periods of sub-VFR conditions in low clouds, showers, and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Easterly winds gusting to 15 or so kts are expected through the
evening due to a tightened pressure gradient. Cannot rule out an
occasional SCA gust, but will handle with an MWS if winds are a tick
above expected this afternoon/evening. A warm front will cross the
waters tonight into Monday turning the winds out of the south. With
high pressure offshore, this leads to the potential for southerly
channeling and a period of SCA conditions late Monday into Tuesday
morning.
Light and variable winds on Wednesday will become east to southeast
Thursday and Friday as a front remains stalled near the area.
Thursday night has the highest chance for wind gusts approaching
advisory criteria. Mainly isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible each afternoon and evening Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies have increased amidst easterly flow today. This has
resulted in coastal flood advisories being issued for King George,
Charles, and Anne Arundel Counties for this upcoming high tide
cycle. Anomalies are forecast to come down slightly with the warm
frontal passage as winds turn more southerly Monday, yet remain
elevated with Action Stage possible at sensitive tidal locations.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ016.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CPB/EST
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB/EST
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/CPB/EST
MARINE...ADS/CPB/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion