White Bluff, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

830
FXUS64 KOHX 220207
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 652
PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast
through Thursday. There is a low threat for severe storms with
damaging winds. Some storms will have heavy downpours causing minor
flooding.
- Temperatures will cool down to near normal values by mid-week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers and storms continued early this evening with about
30-40 percent coverage. The stronger cells were producing very heavy
downpours (some spots 2+ inches) and gusty winds around 40 mph. The
forecast has already been updated to extend low pops (20 to 30
percent) through the night. CAMS show scattered activity lingering
well into the night mainly for areas west of the Plateau.
The next wave will come in Monday with higher coverage than today.
Once again some storms will produce heavy rain and there will be a
slightly grater risk for localized damaging wind gusts from the
stronger storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave moving through
the Middle TN area, and this feature has helped isolated
thunderstorms develop across the west. A troughing pattern will
continue through the day, keeping about 40-60% chances for
thunderstorms continuing through the afternoon and early evening
hours. The atmosphere will continue to destabilize with CAPE values
building to around 1500 J/kg. Moisture is also on the rise with the
PWAT on this morning`s sounding rising to 1.48 inches, which is
above the average of 1.21 inches for the date. This moist, unstable
atmosphere will keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms through
this afternoon. Severe threat remains very low thanks to poor mid-
level lapse rate and very weak shear. But the high PWAT values and
DCAPE values rising to around 500-1000 J/kg will support gusty winds
and heavy downpours from any stronger storms. Storm coverage will
gradually diminish after sunset.
Another shortwave moves through the area on Monday, and moisture
advection will continue to push PWATs up to around 1.60 inches.
Plenty of instability will still be present by afternoon, but mid-
level lapse rates will still be poor. Wind shear is just slightly
better at around 20 knots which helps give a low chance for strong
to severe storms with damaging winds and heavy downpours causing
minor flooding still the main threat. The current SPC Day 2 Outlook
places the majority of Middle TN in a marginal (level 1 out of 5)
risk for Monday. Unlike today, chances don`t diminish after sunset
as models suggest another embedded shortwave near the TN/KY border
will keep medium to high rain chances in the forecast north of I-40
through the overnight hours. But like the afternoon, the severe
threat is low.
Otherwise, high temperatures both today and Monday will remain in
the upper-80s to near 90 for most areas - still above normal for
late September.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sun Sep 21
2025
The upcoming week is still very unsettled thanks to a series of
disturbances. Tuesday looks to be similar to Monday with yet another
shortwave tracking through the area, above normal PWATs, and
sufficient instability. SPC`s Day 3 Outlook still highlights most of
Middle TN in that marginal risk with our primary threats continuing
to be strong to damaging winds and heavy downpours resulting in
minor flooding.
Wednesday and into Thursday, a deep closed low will develop to our
west. This closed low will increase lift and forcing for
thunderstorms, and PWATs will likely be highest during this time
with values of 1.75 to 2 inches. Rain chances are high Wednesday and
Thursday with an increased potential for heavy rain and localized
flooding.
Just in time for the official start of fall, high temperatures will
finally cool off as well with this system and the increased cloud
cover and rain chances. Highs near 90 to start the week will cool
into the low-80s Wednesday and Thursday. A front sweeps through the
area late Thursday and into Friday which will keep our high
temperatures in the 70s to low-80s through the weekend.
Post front, rain chances will fall as well, however, the pattern
remains unsettled as an upper-level low still looks to hang around
into next weekend. This will be enough to keep low rain chances into
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Clusters of thunderstorms continue this evening with impacts
anticipated at BNA and MQY over the next 2 to 3 hours. Brief vis
restriction can be expected with gusts to 25 kts possible.
Various outflow boundaries are resulting in wind direction to be
variable, though average direction remains southerly beyond
outflow passage. Hi-res models are holding on to scattered shower
activity near BNA through the majority of the overnight hours, so
VCSH has been included for a longer period in the taf. PROB30s are
in at all sites for another round of storms tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  87  69  87 /  30  60  70  60
Clarksville    67  85  67  86 /  40  70  80  70
Crossville     62  81  62  79 /  40  60  40  60
Columbia       67  88  67  87 /  30  60  50  50
Cookeville     65  83  64  81 /  30  60  50  60
Jamestown      64  82  63  79 /  30  70  50  60
Lawrenceburg   66  87  66  85 /  40  50  40  40
Murfreesboro   67  87  67  87 /  30  60  60  50
Waverly        66  85  65  83 /  30  60  70  60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....APBB

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion