White, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

054
FXUS62 KFFC 251832
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday and
   into Saturday morning.
- Cooler and drier conditions kick off the long term.
- Uncertainty in the tropics will make the last half of the long
   term forecast tricky.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Current reflectivity and satellite shows increased convection across
central Georgia, initializing earlier and with more coverage than
models indicated. Current sfc analysis shows two regions of
tighter temp gradients which are reflected in the double line of
showers and thunderstorms near MCN and CSG stretching southwest
respectively. The CU field continues to become more disturbed
across the metro and northern Georgia, however persistent cloud
coverage has inhibited daytime heating somewhat. Current
convection appears to require at least 1500+ J/Kg of MLCAPE to
begin producing (see north Georgia precip and central GA
thunderstorms). Convection is likely to begin across the I20
corridor shortly, however convection to the south may eat up much
of the northward transport of energy. Not totally buying CAMs
attempt at the development of a tertiary line in eastern AL
beyond 23Z. Overall, confidence in the exact coverage and
intensity of precip in the metro is low given the current
compounding factors. The good news overall is that severe
potential has decreased as convective potential has separated from
much of the bulk shear support. Still could see a few strong
thunderstorms in areas with MUCAPE >2000J/Kg.
Going into the overnight hours, mostly calm and moist conditions
will mean a risk of patchy fog across much of the area.
Visibilities could drop to 1-4SM in areas. Limiting factor with
this will be patchy showers which may last through the overnight
hours. Total precipitation in central Georgia through Friday is
relatively unimpressive given the spotty coverage. Some will get
lucky with QPF of around 1" while others may get trace to just
over 0.25".
The good news overall is that with increased cloud cover and the
passing cold front, temperatures tomorrow will be more seasonable
with highs in the mid to low 80s. The far southeast regions of the
CWA may not be so luck with the front progression and highs may
still reach the upper 80s. Thunderstorm potential returns Friday
afternoon, mostly in central Georgia, due to further frontogenesis
around the base of the low as it moves over the CWA. No severe
weather is anticipated with this, however a few rumbles of thunder
may be possible.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The long term picks up as the cold front moves out and takes the
rain with it. Drier and cooler conditions will set up on the
backside for what will likely be another taste of early fall. Highs
in the upper 70s and low 80s are expected across most of the CWA
with lower temps possible in the higher elevations. High pressure
will keep conditions nice and dry for most of the area as well so if
you work or play outside, the start of next week will be for you.
The tropics are making things tricky when we try and nail down next
week`s forecast. We are carefully watching Invest 94 in the
Caribbean sea to see what it does. A few of the model solutions has
it heading towards the eastern seaboard, but regardless of the
possibility of landfall, it`s presence will likely dominate the
major synoptic features. If it stays offshore, we`ll likely see a
surge of dry air being inundated into the area. If it doesn`s stay
offshore we definitely won`t be dry. NHC has us doing special weather
balloon soundings for the next couple of days to assist with their
forecast. As we have more information on the potential threat to the
CWA we`ll pass it along, but for now it`s just something to keep an
eye on.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
SHRA and TSRA developing across the region with multiple waves of
precip possible through Fri afternoon. TSRA psbl outside tempo,
especially near metro between 23z and 2z. Winds SW at 5 to 10 kts
becoming light and vrb overnight. CIGs fall overnight to 003 to
005 clearing near 15z Friday with patchy BR reducing vsby to 2-4SM
in areas. Low PoPs remain overnight with -tsra psbl again Fri
afternoon.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence winds.
Medium confidence cigs and vsby overnight.
Medium-low confidence timing and coverage of precip.
SM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  80  65  81 /  40  50  40  30
Atlanta         68  82  66  83 /  30  40  20  20
Blairsville     62  77  59  76 /  20  50  30  50
Cartersville    65  83  63  83 /  20  40  10  20
Columbus        69  83  66  86 /  40  50  10  10
Gainesville     68  81  65  81 /  20  40  30  30
Macon           69  80  66  84 /  50  60  40  30
Rome            66  85  63  84 /  10  40  10  20
Peachtree City  67  82  63  83 /  30  40  20  20
Vidalia         71  86  68  83 /  40  60  60  50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...SM

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion