Whites Chapel, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

384
FXUS64 KBMX 221102
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
602 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2025
After the passage of an upper level trough across the southeast
states Sunday afternoon and night, the upper level flow returns to
a largely zonal flow across the area today, with the main storm
track to Alabama`s north. As a result, it looks like axis of
highest POPs shifts to our north as well the next couple of days.
/61/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2025
Next big weather maker for central Alabama comes in the form of an
upper level trough that is forecast to dig into the eastern CONUS
the middle to end of this week, and an associated surface cold
front passage. These features should bring some much needed rain
to our area. Time period for highest chances of showers and storms
will be from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. Looks
like just about all of central Alabama will get some rain during
that time frame, with average amounts expected to be around an
inch to an inch and a half. Will need to watch details on
mesoscale features, especially in the Wednesday afternoon to
Thursday afternoon time frame. There`s obviously bound to be some
instability around. If the upper trough can muster a strong enough
surface low to enhance shear levels, then there`s a non-zero
chance of some severe storms.
Temperatures behind the front will still be slightly above
seasonal averages, rather than significantly above like we`ve seen
recently.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2025
Models are holding consistent with showers and thunderstorms
remaining north of all TAF sites through the TAF period.
Confidence is low on how widespread development will be and if any
activity will move near any site, so for now, left mention of
PROB30 or VCTS out of each TAF for now. Will amend as needed.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected, with winds increasing this
afternoon, becoming calm again overnight.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will continue to stay in the 30-40% range through
Tuesday, with scattered shower and storm chances remaining in the
forecast. Higher rain chances are expected starting on Wednesday,
perhaps lasting as late as Friday, as a cold front moves across
the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  66  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
Anniston    88  67  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
Birmingham  90  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  92  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
Calera      91  69  92  70 /  10  10   0  10
Auburn      90  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  91  68  93  69 /  10  10   0   0
Troy        90  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...24

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion