Whitley Heights, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

453
FXUS62 KRAH 220531
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
131 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend across the Middle Atlantic
today, then drift to near Bermuda through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...
* Slightly above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
After last nights cold fropa, high pressure has continued to build
back into the region. With daytime heating, this morning`s area of
low stratus has continued lifting and scattering out, leaving some
mostly cloudy areas still in the north. Clouds should continue to
clear throughout the afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon should
be slightly above normal, with highs expected around 80 degrees in
the north to the mid 80s in the south. Tonight, expect areas of fog
and/or low stratus to develop again, with low temperatures in the
upper 50s to the low-to-mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...
* Another warm and dry day, with increased clouds expected.
A similar day to today is expected on Monday. Surface high pressure
will persist over central NC, allowing for a dry forecast to
continue. A shortwave trough looks to move through the region
Monday, which should allow for increased clouds throughout the day.
Maximum temperatures Monday afternoon look to stay around 80 degrees
in the north to the mid 80s in the south, before dipping back into
the upper 50s to mid 60s overnight. Areas of fog and low stratus
will be possible again in the east Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...
On Tuesday morning, there will be two primary pieces of upper level
energy over the United States, one over Lake Superior and the second
over Colorado. These two pieces of energy will merge over the
central United States late Wednesday, strengthening an existing
surface low that will be the primary weather maker for North
Carolina through the week. While a minimal chance of rain will reach
the area Wednesday afternoon and night, a more substantial chance of
rain will arrive Thursday, with a 60% chance of rain reaching as far
east as US-1 Thursday evening and across nearly all locations Friday
afternoon as a cold front moves across the area. A bit of
uncertainty remains as to how quickly the rain shield will move east
of the region - the newest forecast has a 30-40% chance of showers
on Saturday and just a 20% chance on Sunday.
Hazards: Considering the slow movement of the system, there is a low
risk of flash flooding Thursday onward with the potential for
occasional rain for multiple days, despite the dry conditions
recently. In addition, while there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday, the most likely day for
thunderstorms will be Friday as that will be the day with the
greatest instability. Considering the strength of the accompanying
upper level system, Friday could have some strong to severe
thunderstorms, although the Storm Prediction Center currently does
not include any locations in their outlooks past Tuesday.
Temperatures: Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the warmest days in
the extended forecast with southerly flow and minimal cloud cover,
with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Highs will come
down a couple degrees each day after that with the increasing rain
chances and the cold front, with highs on Saturday and Sunday likely
to range from the mid 70s to the low 80s. Lows will generally be in
the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...
Moist, nely flow will favor the redevelopment of mostly LIFR
ceilings and LIFR-MVFR visibility restrictions in mist/fog this
morning between 08-11Z, followed by their dispersion to VFR between
13-15Z.
Outlook: Areas of stratus and fog will be possible again Tue-Thu
mornings, mainly at and east of RWI and FAY. Showers/storms are
expected to reach INT/GSO with isolated coverage late Tue afternoon-
evening and with scattered coverage Wed afternoon-night. Their
probability of occurrence will increase and overspread all of cntl
NC Thu, with associated flight restrictions, then linger into the
upcoming weekend, as a slow-moving trough aloft and surface cold
front approach our region.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Helock
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion