Williams, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

252
FXUS66 KMFR 191550
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
850 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.DISCUSSION...Radar image shows isolated showers over the marine
waters from about Gold Beach south and in portions of Curry and
western Josephine county. Earlier this morning there were a few
lightning strikes over the southern marine waters. In the last
couple of hours no lighting strikes have been observed. Satellite
image shows a broad weak upper low just to our south and this will
be a play maker once again today with respect to showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The best chance for showers and storms
will be in Western Siskiyou County, northern Cascades and portions
of the eastside. Steering winds this afternoon and evening will
be from the east, and it`s possible a few of these storms could
drift off the higher terrain into portions of Jackson and southern
Josephine County. late this afternoon into early this evening.
Isolated storms will end this evening, but we could experience a
few convective showers overnight tonight in northern California.
Changes to the forecast were made to reflect the above mentioned.
-Petrucelli
&&
.AVIATION...19/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore. Marine
stratus just offshore could result in IFR ceilings, but the stratus
is not extensive and with weak instability present, expect the
stratus to break up in the next few hours. Along the coast, VFr
conditions are being observed and should remain the case into this
evening. Could not rule out brief periods of IFR ceilings at North
Bend, but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAF.
North winds will increase late this morning and last into early this
evening, but not as strong as they were yesterday.
Inland VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with the
typical afternoon and early evening diurnal breezes. Isolated
thunderstorms will be a concern in northern California, and the
Cascades. Steering flow suggest a few of these storms could push off
the higher terrain into portions of Jackson county between 23-03z,
but we do not expect them to impact the Medford Terminal.
-Petrucelli
&&
.MARINE...Updated 830 AM PDT Friday, September 18,
2025...Buoy observations show winds and seas gradually diminishing
and this trend is expected to continue through the day. Very steep
and hazardous seas will continue south of Cape Blanco with isolated
gale gusts possible this morning. Very steep seas are also expected
between Cape Blanco and Reedsport and beyond 30 nm from shore. Other
waters north of Cape Blanco will remain steep.
This afternoon, seas gradually improve, but remain steep through the
evening. With winds easing, fresh swell will be the guiding factor.
Seas are expected to drop below advisory conditions tonight and
remain through at least Saturday. Northwest swell builds on Sunday
afternoon, but may not be enough to develop steep seas. Stable
atmospheric conditions may build a thermal trough with gusty
northerly winds for periods of next week. -TAD/Petrucelli
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning
     for PZZ356-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350-
     370.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ356-
     376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ370.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion