Wilmer, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

860
FXUS64 KMOB 090010
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
710 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
An upper shortwave over the central plains will dive southeastward
tonight into Tuesday and reinforce the longwave trough over the
eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly shift eastward, with the
axis reaching the Eastern Seaboard late in the week as an upper
ridge builds to our west. A weak surface low pressure system
across the east-central Gulf will slowly shift westward and
dissipate through midweek, while a surface ridge builds across the
southeast states. These features will allow for winds to become
more easterly, helping to advect moisture back into the area
tonight into Tuesday. This should lead to a 20-30% chance of
showers and storms, mainly across the western Florida Panhandle
this evening, with most of the convection remaining offshore
through the remainder of the night in Tuesday. A 20-30% chance of
showers and storms will return Tuesday afternoon south of Highway
84. A deep dry northerly flow will follow midweek through the
weekend, keeping our area rain-free.
After two more nights with temperatures around to slightly above
normal, the return of the drier air mass will bring low temps back
to around to slightly below normal Wednesday night through the
weekend. We will see quite the opposite when it comes to high
temps, as we normally see with drier air masses, with highs around
to slightly below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, climbing to around
3 to 6 degrees above normal Thursday through the weekend. /22
Beach Forecast - The rip current risk increases to a MODERATE
tonight and HIGH Tuesday through midweek as the tighter pressure
gradient along the coast brings strong easterly winds. The rip
current probability guidance then trends toward a LOW risk
Thursday and Friday. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions should generally prevail over the next 24 hours.
Some low-end VFR to upper-end MVFR ceilings may try to develop
along the immediate coast late tonight into Tuesday morning, with
lower ceilings possible just offshore. Winds will turn more
northeasterly to easterly later this evening and winds will
increase to around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. A few
isolated showers and storms will also develop, primarily over
coastal counties, throughout the period, bringing brief
reductions in visibilities and ceilings. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf late tonight
through Tuesday afternoon as a surface ridge building across the
southeast states brings a strong easterly flow. Seas will also
build to 4 to 7 feet. In addition to the Small Craft Advisory,
small craft operators should exercise caution over most bays and
sounds. A light to moderate northeasterly to easterly flow follows
for Wednesday and Thursday before decreasing and becoming variable
late in the week. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  88  69  89  67  91  66  92 /  10  30  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   72  88  71  89  71  91  70  91 /  30  20  10  10   0   0   0   0
Destin      73  87  71  88  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  10  10   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   65  88  65  89  62  92  62  94 /  10  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  66  87  65  89  62  91  63  92 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      66  87  65  89  62  91  63  93 /  10  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   67  87  66  89  64  91  63  92 /  20  20   0  10   0   0   0   0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion