Wilsons, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

749
FXUS61 KAKQ 070646
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
246 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Autumnal conditions return to the area as high pressure builds
in behind a cold front. Cloudy, breezy, and cooler conditions
expected through mid week. Sunnier and slightly warmer to end
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Dreary conditions this morning as a cold front slowly moves
  offshore. Clearing out from NW to SE this afternoon into
  tonight.
A cold front is cutting through the FA early this morning. While the
thunderstorms with heavy rain have long since ended, scattered light
rain, drizzle, and patchy fog persist. Dreary conditions are likely
to persist through much of the day as the front slowly pushes
offshore and dry high pressure builds in behind it. Starting this
afternoon, skies will start to clear out from NW to SE. This process
will continue into the overnight hours with the far SE staying
mostly cloudy until early tomorrow morning. The overcast skies,
misty conditions, and northerly winds will lead to much cooler
temperatures. Highs today will only reach the low 70s for most of
the area, and the mid-upper 70s for the southside of Hampton Roads
and along the Currituck/Albemarle Sounds. Leaned a bit toward the
lower end of guidance for the lows tonight since the cooler, drier
air will still be filtering in overnight and much of the area will
be under clear/mostly clear skies. This yielded lows in the lower
50s for the Piedmont and northern counties and upper 50s-low 60s in
the SE/near the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Autumnal weather remains in the area with highs in the mid
  70s and drier air moving back in.
Once the cold front makes it offshore, guidance depicts it getting
hung up with an inverted trough forming along it. This trough slides
E enough to keep the local area dry on Monday, but could see some
lingering cloud cover, especially along the coast. Meanwhile, high
pressure slides into New England and builds S down the East Coast.
The pressure gradient between these features will lead to gusty NE
winds which will be highest at the SE coast, gusting up to 25mph.
Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Monday night
range from around 50 in the piedmont to the mid 60s in the SE.
Tuesday will be fairly similar to Monday with the exception of
perhaps a few showers near the coast as that trough retrogrades a
bit, which will also lead to cloudier skies. Milder Tues night with
lows ranging from the mid 50s to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Below average temperatures persist during the middle to later
  portion of next week.
The CAD set up looks to continue through Wed. This means mostly
cloudy to overcast skies, gusty onshore winds, and chances for light
rain in the east again on Wed. Highs will be in the mid 70s. Lows
Wed night will range from the mid 50s in the NW to the mid 60s at
the coast. The coastal trough should finally move away from the
coast Thurs, leading to pleasant conditions with highs in the upper
70s-low 80s. Similar conditions are forecast for Friday. A dry cold
front then swoops in going into the weekend. Forecast highs for
Saturday are back to the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Sunday...
Latest obs indicate VFR across the terminals early this morning.
A cold front is slowly progressing across the area. Scattered
light rain showers will persist along it through the rest of the
morning. Still expecting degrading flight conditions, but
confidence in IFR is much lower based on latest guidance.
Instead, favoring MVFR CIGs within the next few hours. Will see
gradual clearing behind the front later today from NW to SE,
starting at RIC and SBY between 16-19z. Northerly winds expected
through the TAF period, becoming gusty at the coast this
afternoon.
Outlook: High pressure remains centered N of the region much of
next week with a front stalled offshore. A wave of low pressure
along the boundary may bring some lower cigs and a chc of
showers across SE VA and NE NC Tuesday aftn into Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Otherwise, mainly dry and VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued in the Chesapeake Bay
  for elevated northerly winds late tonight into Sunday.
- A more prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory conditions is
  expected Monday-Wednesday for the lower Bay/lower James,
  coastal waters, and Currituck sound as strong high pressure
  becomes centered NE of the region, with a trough offshore.
A cold front is approaching the waters this afternoon, with the
latest surface analysis placing it across the Piedmont region
of VA. Southerly winds have increased to 10-15 kt ahead of the
front on the ocean and in the Chesapeake Bay. Some readings are
approaching 15-20 kt at the elevated sites in the bay.
Regardless, these winds are falling just shy of SCA criteria, so
will hold off on any headlines for the southerly wind episode
today. Showers and storms could also cross the waters later this
afternoon and evening; the stronger storms may necessitate
Special Marine Warnings due to 34+ kt wind gusts.
The cold front drops south through the waters tonight, bringing
a northerly surge of stronger wind. The current forecast has N
winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after 4 AM
Sunday morning. With the cooler airmass moving over the warm
Chesapeake Bay waters, would not be surprised if winds over-
perform the forecast by a few knots. Therefore, gusts up to 30
kt represent the high-end potential on the bay Sunday morning.
Small Craft Advisories have been issued beginning at 4 AM in the
middle and upper bay and at 7 AM for the lower and mouth of the
bay. All headlines are in effect until 4 PM Sunday, though the
northern bay in particular could be cleared a few hours early,
depending on observational trends tomorrow. Waves in the bay
increase to 2-3 ft during this time, locally up to 4 ft in the
southern bay. Elsewhere on the ocean, seas remain in the 2-4 ft
range.
Later Sunday night into early Monday, much drier and cooler air
is expected to advect over the waters helping create a more
prolonged period with strong N/NE winds, initially across the
lower Bay/lower James, the ocean S of Parramore, and the
Currituck Sound. By Monday night into Tuesday, the sfc high is
forecast to build east to New England (at 1030mb+), while a
trough of low pressure is expected to deepen off the SE coast,
actually retrograding a bit to the NW. All of this will act to
tighten the pressure gradient and set the stage for a period of
increasingly adverse marine conditions through the midweek
period. SCAs are likely for the entire marine area, with strong
SCAs for the southern portions of the bay and ocean. Given these
setups tend to overperform the models, cannot rule out of
period of Gale-force winds Tuesday in the coastal waters and
lower bay. Seas are expected to build to 6-8 ft by Tuesday, and
this could be underdone based on climatology (i.e., 9-10 ft seas
are not out of the realm of possibility offshore in the
southern waters). Would not be surprised if a High Surf Advisory
needs to be issued for VA Beach and the northern NC Outer Banks
by late Monday- Tuesday. A slow improvement is expected
Wednesday, but SCAs are very likely to continue into Wednesday
night for the coastal waters.
The rip current threat is low today, but becomes moderate south
Sunday, and high south, moderate north by Monday. A high risk
is expected areawide Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
No tidal flooding is expected through the weekend, but water
levels will increase Monday, with at least minor flooding
looking probable by Tuesday- Wednesday next week given a
prolonged period of onshore flow and high seas offshore. This
pattern would primarily favor the lower Bay/lower James/York
River, and SE VA/NE NC zones along the Ocean, with less of a
flood threat farther north up the Bay and Ocean.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for ANZ632-634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AC
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...LKB/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion