Winchester, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

463
FXUS65 KVEF 202115
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
215 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger through
  the weekend and into the upcoming week.
* Humid conditions will continue, and additional tropical moisture
  could get pulled northward around the middle of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Friday. Remnant moisture due to Mario still
remains in place over the region, but overall conditions have begun
to dry slightly. Dew points have dropped about 3-8 degrees over the
past 24-hours, but still remain about 150-200% of normal for this
time of year. Overall, we will continue to see some clouds this
afternoon along with an isolated shower over the higher terrain. The
probabilities of any thunderstorms will remain less than 10 percent,
with the greatest threat over northwest Arizona where some weak
instability remains in place. An area of low pressure off the
central California coast will drop south overnight and once again
tap into some tropical moisture. This will bring another increase in
moisture to mainly our far southern areas Sunday with PWATs rising
back to around 1.00-1.50". However, with lack of any forcing this
will mainly translate into increasing chances of light rain across
southern San Bernardino and southern Mohave counties Sunday. There
is some weak instability remaining over southern Mohave County so an
isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out.
By Tuesday, if the offshore low begins to move inland as most of the
clusters suggest, there could be another round of enhanced
thunderstorm chances, but exactly where this occurs would be highly
dependent on how far north or south the low is when it moves inland.
At this point, the models suggest another round of showers and
potential thunderstorms moving into western San Bernardino and Inyo
County late Tuesday into Wednesday, but with these cutoff lows,
confidence in the exact location remains uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Generally light winds favoring a northeast to southeast
direction into this evening before turning southwest around 7KT
overnight. Light and variable winds early Sunday morning will
increase out of the south to southwest around 12KTS with some gusts
approaching 18KT after 23Z. Isolated thunderstorms into this evening
along the Peach Springs corridor. Increasing mid and high level
clouds Sunday afternoon, but no precipitation expected.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds will
remain light today following typical diurnal directional trends,
with speeds generally 8 kts or less into this evening. The
exceptions will be KBIH, with gusty south-southeast winds to 20 kts
this afternoon and KDAG, with breezy westerly winds after sunset
between 8 and 12 kts. SCT aoa 12 kft on area mountains this
afternoon, but will clear out after sunset. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible in northwest Arizona into this evening then clearing
overnight. Most areas will see clearing skies overnight, but clouds
will increase Sunday morning across southern San Bernardino and
southern Mohave counties along with a few light showers possible.
CIGS down to around 10kft. Increasing south to southwest winds
Sunday with most areas seeing winds 10-15KT and gusts to around 20KT
in the afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Gorelow
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion