975 FXUS65 KTFX 231132 AFDTFXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 532 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- It will warm up today through Thursday with windy days on Thursday and Friday.
- It will be cooler Friday through the weekend.
- It will be dry through Sunday.
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.DISCUSSION... /Issued 130 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
Areas that received precipitation yesterday will have the potential for patchy fog to form this morning. See the Forecast Confidence & Scenarios section for details. Today an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will dry out the area and allow temperatures to warm up to slightly above seasonal averages. On Wednesday and Thursday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana which will allow temperatures to warm up to well above seasonal averages with dry weather. Thursday evening due to an upper-level trough that begins to dip down from Canada it will be windy across North-central Montana Thursday evening through Friday. On Friday the weak upper- level trough remains in place over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring temperatures back down closer to seasonal averages with dry weather. On Friday it will be windy across Central Montana. Saturday through Monday an upper-level ridge builds back in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to be warm with dry weather each day Saturday through Monday. -IG
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
There is less than a 10% chance for fog to form in Southwestern Montana. However due to there being light winds, clear skies, and the recent precipitation, that probability is too low and a more reasonable probability is around a 30% chance in the valleys of Southwestern Montana. There is a 10 - 30% chance for temperatures of 90 degrees or greater on Wednesday across most of the plains of North-central Montana. There is a 30 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater along the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday and Friday. There is a 50 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front on Thursday and Friday. There is a 10 - 30% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater across the rest of North-central and Central Montana on Friday. -IG
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.AVIATION... 23/12Z TAF Period
With upper level ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Expect light winds with the clear skies as well. Ludwig
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 78 49 87 45 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 78 44 84 40 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 76 45 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 72 40 80 42 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 67 27 72 29 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 70 38 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 78 44 87 44 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 73 45 84 46 / 0 0 0 0
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.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
$$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion