812 FXUS61 KAKQ 151726 AFDAKQAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 126 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into New England today, remaining in place through mid-week. A coastal low approaches the region today, lingering through mid-week. This low will bring widespread rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions across the area from later today through Wednesday. A brief warmup is expected by late week before a return to slightly below normal temperatures by early next week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Wind Advisories have been issued along the coast from Norfolk/Portsmouth south to eastern Currituck from this afternoon into early Tuesday morning.
- Rain pushes inland beginning from late this morning through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across SE VA/NE NC tonight.
Latest analysis depicted a ~1008mb low pressure off the Carolina coast and a 1027mb high centered over SE Canada, ridging south into the local area. Aloft, there was a closed upper level low over the Southeast coast with a tall/skinny ridge extending from the MS Valley into the Great Lakes and Canada. Temps as of 150 AM ranged from the upper 50s to lower 60s inland with lower 70s along the coast. Skies were mostly clear except for some high clouds building into SE VA/NE NC. Clouds are expected to gradually spread north this morning. However, given the clearing, some patchy fog is possible early this morning across inland areas. Morning lows in the upper 50s to around 60F inland (locally mid 50s) and upper 60s to around 70F along the coast are expected. Highs today in the 70s are expected with upper 70s north and mid (locally lower) 70s south.
The coastal low offshore slowly moves NW today, pushing rain bands onshore beginning late this morning and spreading inland through the day. PoPs increase to 50-80% across far SE VA/NE NC this afternoon, increasing to 60-90% across most of the area (30-50% across far northern areas) tonight. Moderate to heavy rain is expected tonight as the fgen on the north side of the low intensifies. As such, expect rainfall totals through tonight of generally 1-2" across NE NC, 0.5-1" across SE VA, and 078- 085-521-522. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ083-084- 086-518-520-523. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ084-086-099-100-523-525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ089-090- 093-096-524-525. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for VAZ089-090-093-096-524-525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ095-097- 098. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ095-098. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for VAZ095-097-098. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ630-631- 635>637-650-652. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631-635>637-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634-638. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-638. Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-658. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656.
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SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...HET/RMM MARINE...ERI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...
NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion