Woodland Hills, California Weather Forecast Discussion

353
FXUS66 KLOX 061629
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
929 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...06/200 AM.
Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through
the weekend, with minor warming each day for most areas. Much
cooler weather is expected next week as a low pressure system
approaches California.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...06/900 AM.
***UPDATE***
The marine layer deepened ever so slightly today compared to
yesterday, with LAX coming in at 1600 ft. This allowed clouds to
push a little further into the valleys today, especially the Santa
Ynez and southern Salinas Valley. While the clouds have already
largely cleared from L.A. County, the other locations may have
slower clearing into the late afternoon - especially those north
of Point Conception. This will help temperatures be on the cooler
side up north, while sites southward, many L.A. County, may be a
tiny bit warmer due to the lack of morning cloud cover and slight
decrease in onshore gradients. That being said, high temps for
interior locations will be in the high 80s to high 90s, with some
of the warmest locations (such as eastern Antelope Valley and
western San Fernando Valley) barely hitting 100 degrees.
Otherwise, closer to the coast, highs will be in the 70s to 80s.
Forecast is on track, and no changes were needed for the morning
update.
***From Previous Discussion***
Overall a pretty quiet weather pattern through the weekend as
southern California is in between a ridge over the southwest
deserts and a low pressure system dropping south along 140n. Many
areas will actually see 1-3 degrees of warming this weekend,
particularly Sunday, as the upper low starts to pivot towards the
coast of northern California, which in turn will pull up warmer
air from the south and force the interior ridge to strengthen.
Otherwise, a lot more of the same weather conditions with
temperatures 2-5 degrees above normal in most areas. Marine layer
stratus will continue for most coastal areas, while along the
Central Coast the marine layer will be a little deeper and push
into some of the valleys each morning, including the Salinas
Valley.
By Monday the upper low will be moving inland near the CA/OR
border and this will be the start of a significant cooling trend
that will continue through next week. The marine layer will deepen
each day and easily push into the LA/Ventura valleys each morning.
The trough will initiate a return of northerly flow across the
western portion of the forecast area, in particular the western
Santa Ynez Range, where low end advisory level winds are possible.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...06/304 AM.
A return to much cooler temperatures, 6-12 degrees below normal,
is expected next week as the upper low stalls near Lake Tahoe with
500mb heights falling to below 580dam for the first time since
mid to late June. A conservative forecast for the marine layer
depth would be 2000 to 3000 feet for much of the week which would
get low clouds into the Santa Clarita Valley and up some of the
coastal mountain slopes. Could even see getting some morning
drizzle by Wednesday, if not before, especially near the lower
mountain slopes. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the
coolest days with many valley areas not even getting to 80 degrees
and some coastal areas remaining cloudy much of the day.
Thereafter, most of the ensemble solutions show a warming trend,
but there is quite a bit of disagreement with how quickly
temperatures will rebound. And in fact, the more recent solutions
are only showing a brief warm up through Saturday before another
unseasonably cold upper low arrives along the northern California
coast later next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...06/1012Z.
Around 07Z, the marine layer depth was 1300 feet deep at KLAX.
The top of the marine inversion was near 2200 feet with a
temperature around 24 degrees Celsius. There was another
inversion up to around 2500 feet.
Moderate confidence in the current forecast, except for high
confidence in the current forecast for desert terminals. Higher
confidence exists in timing. Less confidence exists in flight
categories. LIFR to IFR conditions for terminals north of Point
Conception and IFR to MVFR conditions for terminals south of Point
Conception will continue through at least 15Z. VFR conditions
should develop at most coastal terminals between 16Z and 18Z, but
there is a moderate chance that scattering out of MVFR ceilings
could be delayed until as late as 22Z at KSBA and KOXR. A return
of low conditions could happen as early as 02Z Sunday, but higher
confidence exists in a slightly later return.
KLAX...MVFR conditions will very likely linger through at least
16Z. VFR conditions could develop as as late as 18Z. A return of
low clouds, or IFR to MVFR conditions could arrive as soon as 02Z
Saturday, or as late as 08Z. Any east winds will likely be less
than 7 knots.
KBUR...There is a 50 percent chance of IFR to MVFR conditions
between 13Z and 16Z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. No
wind impacts are expected at this time.
&&
.MARINE...06/833 AM.
Moderate confidence in the current forecast through Sunday, then
higher confidence thereafter. Slightly higher confidence exists in
the seas forecast relative to winds through Sunday.
For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, marginal Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will likely persist through this
morning, then increase again this afternoon and evening. There is
a 50-70 percent chance of SCA level winds this afternoon and
evening, and again Saturday afternoon and evening. The highest
chance will be focused from around Point Conception south to the
San Nicolas Island. Local SCA level wind gusts may also occur
offshore of Point Piedras Blancas. There is a likely (60-70
percent) chance of widespread SCA level winds between Sunday
afternoon and Wednesday evening. There is a low-to- moderate
(20-30 percent) chance of Gales, especially from around Point
Conception south to the San Nicolas Island between Monday
afternoon and Tuesday evening.
Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate chance
of SCA level winds each evening through Sunday, highest across
western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel, near Point Dume,
and across the San Pedro Channel. Elsewhere, winds and seas are
expected to remain below advisory levels through Sunday. There is
a moderate to high chance of SCA levels winds across portions of
the inner waters each afternoon and evening between Monday and
Wednesday, potentially becoming widespread and impacting eastern
portion of the Santa Barbara Channel and the Santa Monica Bay.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Lund
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion