Yale, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

827
FXUS61 KAKQ 201747
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
147 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front drops southward through the area today,
bringing a return to seasonably cool and cloudy conditions this
weekend. A warm up in temperatures from high pressure returns
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1135 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Patchy to locally dense fog is expected again this morning.
- Backdoor cold front approaches the area today, bringing cooler
temperatures moving from the north to the south.
Early morning analysis shows weak ridging aloft allowing for high
pressure over the region. Stronger high pressure over the Quebec
region pushes a cold front moving from the N to S currently just
far northern portions of the Commonwealth.
The backdoor cold front will move through the area late afternoon
into overnight with building clouds throughout the day. The forcing
mechanisms of this front are overall weak but the front will still
bring cooler temperatures. The front is slow moving and won`t make
it through the entire area before reaching the high temperature for
the day causing a wide temperature gradient. The northern half of
the area will see cooler temperatures today in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, while the southern half will see temperatures in the mid
80s. A stray shower or two cannot be ruled out with the front,
mostly in the piedmont and northern half of the area this afternoon.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy to overcast night keeping lows in
the mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler temperatures in wake of backdoor cold front.
- High pressure returns to the region, keeping conditions dry.
Behind the cold front, a weak low pressure will form along the front
on Sunday, but model guidance has become in better agreement that
this low will remain further off coast in the Atlantic ocean. In
result, rain chances have lowered along the coast and now not
expecting showers to form. High pressure will return to region but
mostly cloudy skies are expected Sunday and Monday with around
average high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry with near to slightly above average temperatures early
  next week.
- Rain chances and cooler temperatures potentially return by the
  middle and end of next week.
Ridging will build offshore of the SE CONUS coast next week, while a
strong upper low dives into the central Plains. Model guidance
continues to indicate that high pressure will return to south of the
area by early next week, favoring a warming trend due to developing
return of flow out of the south. Highs will rebound to the low-mid
80s forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances return by the
middle to later portions of next week due to the approaching upper
low and trough, which is expected to advance eastward through the MS
Valley during the middle and end of next week as high pressure
returns to the Quebec region. This will bring slightly below average
temperatures to region by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...
A backdoor cold front is sagging into the local forecast area
this afternoon. SBY, which is north of the front, has MVFR CIGs.
Elsewhere, cloud cover is FEW-SCT this afternoon. Thicker cloud
cover will spread south through this evening and overnight as
the front continues to drop south. Along with it, lowering CIGs.
Still thinking most terminals should drop to IFR tonight, but
will note that guidance has trended a little higher along the
coast and keeps the bulk of the IFR inland. Could see a few
showers as the front comes through, but confidence is too low
for inclusion in the TAFs. There is a chance for some patchy
fog at RIC around sunrise, but guidance keeps fog primarily to
the west. VFR returns to the terminals by tomorrow afternoon
when the clouds scatter out. NE winds will be 5-10kt through the
period.
Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs are likely behind the front tonight into
Sunday morning with conditions improving throughout the day Sunday.
High pressure returns Monday and Tuesday with likely VFR
conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- A back door cold front crosses the coast early this morning. High
pressure then builds N of the region tonight into Sunday as a trough
develops off the North Carolina Coast resulting in a strengthening
northeast wind.
- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Atlantic coastal
waters, mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound from
Sunday into Sunday night.
A backdoor cold front is approaching from the N early this morning
ahead of high pressure over ON/QB building SE toward New England.
The wind is SSW 5-10kt ahead of the cold front, with seas ~2ft, and
waves in the Ches. Bay ~1ft. This area of high pressure slides SE
across New England and into Atlantic Canada today into tonight and
builds to ~1030mb. High pressure remains over the Canadian Maritimes
Sunday as an inverted trough sharpens off the NC coast. The initial
wind shift to NE this morning will only be 5-10kt, but will then
increase to 10-15kt later this aftn into tonight. Beginning late
tonight/early Sunday morning and continuing Sunday into Sunday
evening, a NE wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt with gusts
approaching 25kt for the ocean, mouth of the Ches. Bay, and
Currituck Sound (NE 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt elsewhere).
Meanwhile, seas build from 2-3ft this morning, to 3-4ft later this
aftn into tonight, and then 4-5ft N to 5-6ft S Sunday into Sunday
night. SCAs have been issued for the ocean (primarily for seas with
near SCA criteria wind) beginning 10z/6 AM Sunday, the mouth of the
Ches. Bay (for wind and 3-4ft waves) beginning 10z/6 AM Sunday
through 05z/1 AM Monday, and the Currituck Sound from 10z/6 AM
Sunday through 05z/1 AM Monday. Local wind probs for sustained 18kt
and gusts to 25kt drop off quickly W of Little Creek. Therefore,
only the mouth of the Ches. Bay was included in the SCA. SCAs for
the ocean are in effect through 11z/7 AM Monday, but may eventually
need to be extended as seas will be slow to subside.
The pressure gradient relaxes early next week as high pressure
builds S into the region and then nudges offshore by midweek. Seas
will be slow to subside Monday, but sub-SCA conditions should
gradually return and then prevail for the entire marine area by the
middle of next week.
A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast today for all area
beaches. However, the day will likely begin low with the threat
increasing to moderate by this aftn as nearshore waves build to ~3ft.
A high risk is forecast for Sunday due to an increasing NE wind and
nearshore waves of 4-6ft. There is a potential for some long period
swell from TS Gabrielle (forecast to be Hurricane Gabrielle by that
point) to arrive early next week resulting in a continued elevated
rip current risk.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ633-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SW
NEAR TERM...AC/KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC/NB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJZ

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion